First the flu facts from a world class authority! Arthur Reingold, of the School of Public Health, UC Berkeley who spoke to us with insider information after returning from two weeks of worldwide conferences on flu. These conferences were about the potential of Avian Flu at the beginning but by the end they were about the emerging flu in Mexico City.
Most of what is generally known is covered in Wikipedia Influenza, with more links, so I will assume you are familiar with that first before my radical new suggestions, at the bottom, or they will not make as much sense. The pre-lecture blurb:
H5N1 influenza virus is circulating widely in avian populations in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Over 400 cases of human H5N1 influenza have been documented in humans, as a result of bird to human transmission. When H5N1 is transmitted to humans, over half of those who develop pneumonia die. There is widespread concern that the H5N1 virus could become readily transmissible from human to human and retain its pathogenicity, in which case a human pandemic of H5N1 disease is likely, although it remains unclear whether the H5N1 virus is capable of changing in this way. This talk will discuss the policy challenges posed by the unknown probability that a human pandemic of H5N1 infections will occur at some point in the future. ** Dr Reingold will also comment on the current swine flu outbreak.
Some critical facts: Incubation period of flu is typically 1-4 days with most onset of symptoms occurring between 2-3½ days after exposure. There will be about a 1-2 day period of contagious viral shedding before the first symptoms appear and a day or two of maximal shedding as the symptoms ramp up to maximum. The basic ways of transmission are large droplets (>5μm) from coughs and sneezes and contact of the contaminated hands to the nose or eyes. There will typically be waves of infection spreading through a community which lasts 4-8 weeks. Once a flu had departed from a typical victim they will recover and return to full function. Go to World Health Organization for more: WHO on A(H5N1)
From Dr. Reingold’s report it seemed to me that preparedness for a flu pandemic by the world’s authorities was woefully inadequate. It seems they are stockpiling enough vaccine and anti-viral drugs for the ruling politicians and their enforcement personnel and other key personnel but beyond that the total quantities will be only enough to make a dramatic token gesture for the general public’s needs after the outbreak. Already 25% of the oseltamivir (Tamiflu) has been released for this as yet non-pandemic. This material has not been used, but just made available to the authorities for their use. The creation of the vaccine is totally within the control of the business community and they won’t act until they think they will have a salable public available. It takes time to manufacture the vaccines and the anti-virals but pandemics are likely to spread far faster then they can respond with large quantities of these drugs. The problem is that the manufacturers won’t go to the expense of manufacturing these items until there is an order for them and the authorities won’t go to the expense of ordering them until there is a clear need—a pandemic—but by then it’s too late to manufacture enough of these drugs to be effective at stopping the pandemic.
Instead of preparing for the pandemic with vaccines and anti-virals the public will be given lots of advice because official advice sounds good and it is cheap and it makes it appear the governments are doing something when they are not. The advice they give is reasonable advice for someone who can call in sick and avoid public contact for the 4-8 weeks while a local epidemic takes its time to run its course and clear out. But most people can’t take that cheap advice, because they are forced by their personal circumstance to interact with other members of the public. Workers have to do their job to get paid and they have to travel to get to their jobs also they have to go to the grocery store, etc. Even when they are sick they have to do these things which then exposes everyone else. Therefore, the official advice isn’t very helpful. It is good advice—wash your hands frequently, avoid public contact—but it is advice which for most people is impossible to follow.
They mention threat levels 1-6 which attempt to define levels of the virulence and the contagion level of a given disease outbreak. These have associated pre-existing plans for governmental behaviors to be expected or implemented. Reingold was on some of the national and international teams which were trying to define what should be done at these various threat levels so he spoke with a background inside information. But what I heard was lots of bureaucratic blah blah with an abundance of terms like Planning, Capacity Building, Training, Research, Improved Public Information but very little on what should be done and what was being done. One minor exception was authorization for Acquisition and Stockpiling of anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu and Relenza and the verbal encouragement of the manufacture of vaccines to get started. But what was being done on that score was pathetic because it was too little too late for the average inhabitant of Earth and just enough and just in time for the insiders. It is impossible to know how bad this influenza outbreak will be but one thing can be said with a certainty—the official response will be inadequate except for their personal protection. That’s a bit harsh, as a statement, but that is what is happening.
So what can I say as a total outsider with no official paid position to compromise? I can be creative with new ideas where the insiders are forced to be conformist with old ideas. The down side of my creative position is that I will be called crazy and my suggestions unproven and dangerous and some people may die. The down side of their position is that only the right people will be given the best available treatment and the vast majority, over 90%, will get no treatment whatsoever and large numbers of them will die, needlessly. The upside of my position is that it would be totally voluntary and be available to everyone. The upside of their position is that it is available to the elites and they have the authority of the world governments behind them.
Probaway’s new possibilities for controlling flu
- To prevent a new and virulent form of flu from coming into existence, let everyone on Earth learn well that, When you are sick with a flu avoid people and totally avoid sick birds and sick pigs. It is when one individual has two flus simultaneously, especially those caught from birds or pigs, that it is inside of them that the new and dangerous forms of flu come into existence.
- When your community is experiencing an epidemic, avoid sick people, move quickly away from a sneezing person, wear a N-95 mask when in public, and never bring your hands near your face except to eat with a utensil. These are common sense but practice them and help others to practice them by correcting their habitual behavior when they make a mistake. This could be practiced in public: when someone brings their hand to their face you say, “STOP and sneeze into your elbow” or just “ELBOW!” and we should all learn to scratch our face and nose itches with the other elbow and never with our fingers.
- This suggestion is a desperate one but it is based on the idea that an infection will take two days longer to reach your lungs from your nose than if you contract an airborne virus into your throat or lungs from a sneeze. When it is impossible to avoid sneezing people and catching the flu it might be possible to inoculate yourself against a deadly flu by using my new form of the variolation technique. That method was first brought to Europe by Mary Wortley, pictured above for controlling smallpox. You can voluntarily give yourself a milder case of the flu—Take mucus from a recovering person’s nose and rub it into your own nose. You will get sick, but it will take about two more days for the infection to get to your vital organs and that two days gives your body a chance to develop antibodies which destroy the virus and you won’t get as sick. See: A history of variolation. Vaccination is much better than variolation but vaccination won’t be available to most people for a pandemic flu and variolation will. This might also work by putting the infected nasal mucus directly on your skin.
- Once you have some symptoms of flu, about the 3rd day after exposure, begin the following techniques which by my personal experience alone I have found to subdue common colds. This isn’t tested science which has been verified by controlled experiment but it is a testable theory which anyone can verify. 1. The cure for the common cold is six 102°F degree fevers. 2. A cure for the common cold using 105°F baths. 3. The Bird flu is coming sooner or later—so prepare for it
Good Luck—Live Long and Prosper
Clearly everything proposed above is experimental so proceed carefully at your own risk and with totally voluntary cooperation of everyone concerned.
When this swine-flu, or the next bird-flu, has run its course we may know if these suggestions were valuable or not. But one thing is certain the authorities will not be able to serve everyone and these techniques will be available to everyone.
Here is the official position from Professor Reingold’s final presentation slide—
Summary.
A human influenza pandemic appears to be inevitable, but its timing is unknown/unknowable.
The influena virus that will cause the next human pandemic is unknown/unknowable.
Whether H5N1 will ever cause a human pandemic is unknown/unknowable.
The effectiveness of currently available anti-viral drugs, influenza vaccines, “social distancing” maneuvers, and other measures in limiting the spread of the next human influenza pandemic is unknown.