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Continuing stress brings collapse, Food wars are becoming more common., Water wars bring general war
I don’t like to think about serious world trouble, but it seems prudent to look at the trends to identify the problems before they become serious and take appropriate actions.
It is sad but obvious that human population is still expanding rapidly. In 1925 there were two billion people, in 1975 there were four billion, and now in 2014 there are about seven billion, and there will probably be past eight billion by 2025. The green revolution has fed the new billions well until now. The proof of that assertion is that those billions of people are alive, but it can’t continue forever because the materials that are used to create food to feed these increasing billions have a finite limit. Nearly all land that can be tilled is presently under cultivation.
Most land that can be irrigated is presently under irrigation, most green revolution improvements have probably been made, the location of most energy that is to be used for cultivation and fertilizing of crops is now known and is being exploited, and it is known to be limited. It all points to a simple fact that our present mode of living can’t go on forever, and that population will either be controlled by human volition and voluntary population control, or it will be limited by natural processes. The chart above illustrates that when the Consumer Food Price Index (CSI) goes above 210, social unrest and food riots occur. For people who are now spending half of their income on food at the present prices, a doubling of food price means they have no money for housing, clothing, tools or anything else. They are soon destitute and die of famine.
This chart above is from Food Price Watch. It shows the general decline of food prices since 1960 until 2007 resulting from the increase in farm productivity based on modern technology. Some of those improvements have reached their maximum levels, and others, like energy in the form of oil, water, and gas, will be used to the point of non-availability in the decades coming and will be gone forever. The general trend down in the price of food has given everyone under the age of seventy the false sense of security that food is plentiful and secure. Food riots happen when the local people feel they have been cheated by some governmental conspiracy. It is partly true, but mostly the cause is too many people for the resources available.
Last week in the book review, WATER by Steven Solomon, the aspect of the widening crisis of freshwater scarcity was discussed. Water is only one of several critical items that must be smoothly delivered by our social structure to maintain humanity at its present population of seven billion people. There are many ways a disruptive war could destroy the smoothly operating world order, and perhaps water wars will come into being, because there are many rivers that cross national borders, and the technology of damming the river for electric power and irrigation is readily available. The upstream nation will claim the right to built a dam on their own land, but the downstream one will claim historical rights to the river water it has been using for thousands of years. There are many similar impossible situations discussed in the book. For example, 90% of Egypt’s water comes from Ethiopia, and those people now want the water in their own land for their own use. Iran, Syria, and Iraq all have water coming from Turkey, who now wants to keep it for themselves. The water going to Viet Nam comes from China. There are many more examples.
The United States has been playing the role of policeman of the world since WW II and before too, but it can’t control these water war situations, and doesn’t want to, nor do those countries want Americans butting in. But a water war between two seemingly local nations might totally upset the commerce of the world. The US navy can’t protect the thousands of ships at sea from pirates, while trying to contain a war to a given locality, and when there is a major war in progress there will be pirates in action and commerce will drop drastically, and when world trade is decreased the population of the world will soon decrease via famine in places and situations remote from the war.
Look at the trends in the charts above and make your own assessment of when you should take some reasonable action.
As population keeps doubling be prepared for when food prices suddenly double.