Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World

The current Covid-19 chart for the World and the largest seven countries is below. I chose these countries based on the assumption that by the end of this pandemic the population of a country will be an approximate measure of the total problem. That will probably be wrong because China has all but eliminated the Covid virus and will probably have access to the world’s creation of vaccines in a few years. The US has worked hard to discover vaccines but that takes time, and in the meantime, hundreds of thousands of American lives are being lost. China will exit from this pandemic as an even stronger player on the world’s economic stage.

The chart above illustrates what happened since five days ago, and that is simply a continuation of the dashed projection lines from the existing curves. The broad blue curve at the top is the total world Covid cases, and because it represents such a large number of people, if nothing extraordinary happens about the current situation the dashed projection curve will probably be near the next published number. If that is true, there will be about 49 million known cases of Covid-19 and near 1.2 million known deaths attributable to that disease on November 1, 2020.

The sad thing for me is that my suggestion of using a dilute solution of baby shampoo to rinse the nostrils a few times per day to kill the Covid virus has fallen on a world of intentionally deafened ears. This procedure would cost about a penny per month, so it is not a question of cost, but the media shunning of the idea.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World.

Tags

Baby shampoo against COVID, Color coded Covid disease chart, Covid, Covid in India, Covid logarithmic projections

A continuing five-day update of the Covid pandemic showing the summation of the whole World caseload and deaths. Also, there are similar treatments of the countries with populations of over two hundred million, and a comparison of this data with the 2014 Ebola epidemic in Africa.

Data for the Covid pandemic up to October 1st, 2020

This chart shows the last three months of the Covid pandemic to be remarkably consistent for the seven largest countries shown. The situation in India is particularly serious because the total number of cases is very large and the curve is steep.

Because of the crowding of the living conditions there, it would be reasonable to assume that everyone will be exposed over the coming months, and therefore every person should take maximum personal precautions for avoiding infection. My personal routine is to wash my face with Baby Shampoo and sniff a small amount into my nose because soap kills viruses. Also, I leave my hands and face to dry without wiping the water off, so there will be a thin layer of soap left on my face which will inhibit the virus.

Even if vaccines are developed it will probably not be available to most people in India soon enough to protect them from infection.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World.

Tags

Color coded Covid disease chart, Covid, Survival from COVID-19

These Covid pandemic charts have been updated every five days

Covid pandemic logarithmic chart of World cases and deaths, and the largest seven countries cases and deaths.

It seems strange to say but this graph is proceeding in so consistent a pattern that there isn’t much to be said that’s new. The sad problem is that on a logarithmic chart the vast numbers of people suffering and dying at the top don’t appear as scary as the few dying at the bottom. It is shocking to see the cases of Covid rise from ten on January 1, 2020, to twelve thousand on January 30, 2020. It is not so shocking to see the numbers rise from seventeen million on August 1, 2020, to twenty-five million on August 31, 2020. That comparison is twelve thousand versus eight million. That’s over six hundred times as many cases, but without six hundred times more interest, perhaps even less interest because we have grown numb to the scale of this Covid pandemic catastrophe.

In my part of the world, Deschutes County, Oregon, USA, we have gone from a hand-full of cases in March, which wouldn’t pose much of a risk to a hundred thousand people, to 810 today. That means over a hundred times more risk now than in spring, but people don’t seem a hundred times more careful.

When the weather cools to 43 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the ideal temperature for airborne sneezes and coughs to transmit droplets containing the disease, things will get worse. That coupled with the fact that we will be spending more time indoors with other people nearby to us, compounds the risk of catching the Covid disease.

Our individual personal risk is much greater now than eight months ago because there are vast and unknown numbers of people now carrying the disease compared to then.

So, obey the official suggestions for protecting yourself and your loved ones, and consider my suggestion that when you wash your face, include your nostrils and eyelids with a mild soap like Baby Shampoo a couple of times per day.

Covid will pass a million deaths by October 1, 2020

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Covid update

The cases and deaths continue to grow logarithmically

This is my continuing presentation of the Covid Pandemic. There is nothing unusual in the data as it is taken from standard sources. The only thing unique is the presentation, and that does demonstrate some valuable lessons. Perhaps the strangest thing is the nearly four months of straight-line growth of the World cases and deaths.  This has happened even though considerable efforts have been made to inform the public to wear masks and keep social distancing when in public. Those and the other promoted procedures help to slow the spread of the Covid virus, but they don’t prevent the public from catching and spreading the disease. It won’t be until the entire population gets vaccinated or catches the disease and develops antibodies to suppress the disease that the death rate will ease up.

My personal thoughts are that soap has been proven to kill the Covid virus, and that baby shampoo is so mild a soap that people can easily tolerate getting it into their eyes and nose and sinuses. This procedure will kill the viruses in the sinuses where it usually penetrates into the cells.

Ultimately that infection may be a good thing because if the disease can be limited to the victim’s sinuses, using the baby shampoo, they would develop antibodies without much risk of dying. It is when the disease enters the lungs that it becomes deadly.

These people would be less likely to spread the disease, and when next year’s development of the disease presents itself they will have partial protection. Over several years the disease will probably kill fewer people, but in the meantime it is deadly.

 

Covid finds its ideal entry point in the nose.

Tags

Curing Covid, Curing COVID-19, Preventing Covid infections

It has been reported in Science Daily

Key nose cells identified as likely COVID-19 virus entry points

Human Cell Atlas study could help understand the transmission of the virus

Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute

April 23, 2020 – Two specific nose cell types have been identified as likely initial infection points for COVID-19 coronavirus. Scientists discovered that goblet and ciliated cells in the nose have high levels of the entry proteins that the COVID-19 virus uses to get into our cells, which could help explain the high rate of transmission. The study with Human Cell Atlas Lung Biological Network found cells in the eye and some other organs also contain the viral-entry proteins.

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This is welcome news to me because it supports my theory that washing the nose and sinuses with a mild soap such as Baby Shampoo will help in preventing Covid infections. In this link there are the scientific reasons that Soap is a potent killer of viruses. The link is from a reputable source, The World Economic Forum.

My combining those two articles into a workable Covid suppressor is that sniffing some diluted soap suds into the nose when washing one’s face might be enough to prevent catching the Covid disease.

I am moving my head side to side to make the solution flow around in my sinuses after getting a teaspoon full of solution into my nose. It is then blown out into the sink.

I have been promoting the flushing of the sinuses and nose with Baby Shampoo for several months by using a dilution of one drop of Baby Shampoo per 100 milliliters (one cup) of distilled water, or boiled water if distilled water isn’t available. The articles quoted above only mention the nose cells and handwashing. The researchers may not have probed into the sinuses but that may be because they didn’t choose to irritate people’s sinuses.

“Dr. Waradon Sungnak, the first author on the paper from Wellcome Sanger Institute, said: ‘We found that the receptor protein — ACE2 — and the TMPRSS2 protease that can activate SARS-CoV-2 entry are expressed in cells in different organs, including the cells on the inner lining of the nose. We then revealed that mucus-producing goblet cells and ciliated cells in the nose had the highest levels of both these COVID-19 virus proteins, of all cells in the airways. This makes these cells the most likely initial infection route for the virus.'”

The obvious conclusion of these reports is to rinse the sinuses daily with a non-irritating solution of soap and flush away the exposed Covid viruses.

Covid continues to grow exponentially

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Covid logarithmic chart update

There isn’t much to be said anymore about Covid, except that it continues to grow exponentially, and until one of the vaccines is available there isn’t much an individual can do except follow the plaid advice of the authorities. If all goes well the Oxford vaccine might be available in volume in a couple of months. My baby shampoo nasal wash is available instantly but isn’t being used by anyone except me and a few of my friends.

Covid has killed more than 823,000 people and is growing exponentially as is shown on this chart.

The Covid pandemic is likely to get worse for several more months so lay up a couple months of emergency food supplies if you can.

 

 

Covid grows logarithmically with seven billion humans to go

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A supply of food at home, Covid is getting worse, Govid is getting worse, Prepare for a month

Covid grows logarithmically in a human population unless there is something to interrupt its growth, which at the moment is social distancing and face masks. Each of those is partially effective in slowing the spread, but ultimately, as with the flu, everyone is going to be exposed.

The top blue line shows the total number of Covid cases worldwide has been growing smoothly for four months.

Follow the US  Center for Disease Control (CDC) suggestions for controlling Covid. “Know how it spreads, Wash your hands often,  Avoid close contact, Cover your mouth and nose with a mask when around others, Cover coughs and sneezes, Clean and disinfect, Monitor Your Health Daily,” But it is obvious that washing hands and rinsing them often isn’t enough because if your hands are clean, the instant your hands touch a contaminated surface you are immediately at risk when you touch your nose. To correct that problem I have been suggesting washing your hands with Baby Shampoo when you rinse your sinuses and letting them dry with a light coating of the soap still on your hands. The soap will help kill the Covid viruses.

I have been rinsing my sinuses with Baby Shampoo, diluted one drop to one cup of water, for several months to find a level that is comfortable, and to make sure there isn’t any unpleasant side effect for others. Even if my sinuses are exposed, it takes a while for the disease to establish itself in the sinuses and washing the sinuses three times per day may prevent them from infecting any sinus cells. Holding some of the solution in my nose with my fingers and rocking my head back to a level position seems to help spread the solution. I will make a YouTube video of this soon.

Another suggestion, which I haven’t encountered yet, is to keep a minimum of a month’s supply of essentials in your home so if you get sick or your community gets sick you can stay totally away from other people.

The Covid disease is probably going to get worse for several more months so it is a good idea to prepare for that problem now while it is easy to do.

 

 

 

The emotional stress of the news is hurting people

The Covid pandemic is worldwide and that is the definition of a pandemic. So far, the total number of people dying is a relatively small percentage of the population. However, because it is a new disease everyone will eventually be exposed, and in a couple of years after people’s own immune systems have learned how to cope with it, the Covid will become a background disease like the common cold. In the meantime, we must treat this as a real problem and treat it as a serious threat and take easy precautions such as wearing a mask in public and avoiding sick people.

On my logarithmic charts of the Covid pandemic, I have suggested that the maximum deaths from the disease in its present form might go as high as 400 million people. That fantastic number is based on the death rate being 5% of the 8,000 million people. (5% of 8 billion people.) That number isn’t an existential threat to the human species but it is a real threat to our equanimity and has been a real problem for the high percentage of people who must work in close proximity to other people. If a person is in constant contact with large numbers of the public, they are going to be exposed frequently. If they were to follow my suggestions for cleansing their sinuses several times per day with a normal baby shampoo dilution their infection rate would drop. That alone might bring the Covid pandemic to an end. Of course, there hasn’t been any interest in this possibility, so we will never know if it works, or not.

Being almost 85 years old I am in the high-risk category, but I am also in the category of people that don’t have much need to mix with the public so my risk isn’t quite so high.

Of course, people who are responsible for the public are often times, let me be polite and not call them stupid; instead, I will call them overworked and distracted by their other duties. However, letting 2,750 metric tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate be stored for years near downtown Beirut, Lebanon, does seem to go beyond being distracted by overwork. Over that period of time, there must have been hundreds of people who recognized the danger and didn’t bring it to the attention of the people responsible, or if that didn’t work to go to the newspapers. The newspaper slogan “If it bleeds it leads!” doesn’t seem to suggest in editors’ minds that the risk of bleeding from some obvious actions would bring catastrophe.

Because that ship carrying the ammonium nitrate was a major political issue, and their cargo was unloaded into the warehouse at the dock, every adult in the city must have known of the problem and of the possibility of the explosion that only needed a tiny spark to make it happen. That coupled to the fact that a major portion of the food for the whole country of Lebanon was stored right next to the potential explosion.

Must I go on? People are stupid when it comes to predicting the future, even though we are named Homo sapiens, the wise ones. Wise because we can predict some futures.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections and terror estimates.

Tags

Covid logarithmic projections, survival, Terrifying projections

A logarithmic chart shows huge comparisons more clearly than a linear chart.

I accidentally typed terror charts into the title line instead of error charts, but soon realized that was a better name for what’s to come.

Here in Deschutes County, Oregon, where I live people have been behaving fairly well when it comes to wearing masks and social distancing. However, when you look at the grey line at the bottom of the chart you can easily see that our last month of cases has grown more steeply than any of the other lines which represent the leading countries, including the worst country for failing to suppress the Covid, the United States.

The people I talk to on my two daily walks are always at greater than the recommended social distance of six feet, and I do wash my sinuses with dilute baby shampoo after my walks. I hope and believe that my personal risk is low. The conversations almost always ask how we are coping with the pandemic. Everyone is concerned, but I haven’t seen anyone actually in a state of emotional panic, and generally, the conversation will complain about the few people who aren’t wearing masks in grocery stores.

The Oregon State Governor has made it a law that people must wear masks in grocery stores and other gathering places. If the customer refuses to wear a mask, they are asked to leave. There have been reports of a few cases of refusal to cooperate.

The problem is that with over 500 cases in a population of 100,000 there are enough sick people to contact everyone else through a sequence of a second person or through them a third-person contact. Because most contacts are from behind masks, and at a social distance, the transmission rates between these people will be modest, but the children, who are naturally more likely to be in contact with other children, are going to be the prime vectors. Thus, in the next year, we will all be exposed, at least a little.

The much greater problem is shown in the chart above with the top blue line representing the whole world of cases of the Covid pandemic. It is nearly a straight line for two and a half months. Because this is a very large database the changes will be relatively slow and smooth and the projection line for the month of August will probably be within the width of the blue line. If that is accurate, at the end of August we will have approximately twenty-seven million cases. If that is the case and three to five percent of people die of the disease, the total dead from Covid will be between eight hundred ten thousand and one million three hundred fifty thousand by mid-October. That is a disaster!

Applying that same set of approximations the USA will have about seven million cases by the 1st of September and six weeks later at 3 to 5% total death rate that will be very approximately 210,000 to 350,000 dead. Those numbers will affect everyone emotionally because they will either know someone who died or will know someone who knew someone who died.

That will make a terrifying election environment for the potential Presidents to inhabit and make it ugly and dangerous.

 

 

Seeking a route out of public chaos and private anxiety.

Tags

public chaos, Seeking a way out

A rational person living in the United States today can not be anything but depressed by the response of all of our governments — national, state, and local — to the Covid pandemic. They consistently seem to choose a route that is too little too late and present their “official solutions” in ways that will create modest responses from reasonable adherents and violent protests from free-thinkers who believe personal selfishness trumps any social responsibility. So, there have been massive counterproductive media actions supporting normal people to behave in ways that in China would have landed them on a personal reform farm for several years of learning more socially acceptable behaviors. Here in the US there is a consistent hope presented that things are getting better while the statistics are steadily getting worse. And not just worse, but logarithmically worse.

But how can I cope with this nonsense? I have been a stoic even before my teenage years without having any direct exposure to the classic stoics. I spent a lot of time in my early youth with my mother’s parents on their farm near Homedale, Idaho. That was where I went to the 1st grade of grammar school, which included the 2nd and 3rd grades. I like to say that I started school when five years old in the 3rd grade, and created a family legend of learning to talk in school only while holding up my hand  and challenging Milly my teacher (and cousin) for not holding up her hand when she spoke.

I mention my grandparents because they both had learned Latin in high school back in Covington, Ohio, and would occasionally use Latin terms for common items like naming our cow Boz, and the pig Suie, et cetera. They spoke occasionally of Seneca I suppose, because I knew that name when a child. They were very common-sense people, and my grandmother reminded me many times, “Remember, Charles, that we are just plain folks.” I know there was something of a pre-hippy quality about her and her leading her family back into a healthy back-to-the-earth lifestyle.

My thoughts of her bring me back to the Classic Stoic Romans such as Seneca and Epictetus, whom she and my grandfather probably studied in school. So I suspect they imbued me with those ideals without me, or possibly even they, knowing they were doing it. I was the “seventh child” she raised, and I can now look back on some things she did with appreciation. I had perfect freedom of choice because I never did anything bad. I can say that I learned my morality by their examples of how to behave like good people. To them, that meant honest, often humorous talk, consistently doing one’s duty in a cheerful way, and being there when needed. Thank you Grand-ma and pa for your guidance of me and your children, including my Mom. These were all wonderful people, whom I liked very much at that time, but in remembrance I revere.

They seem to be my motivation to try to take responsibility for saving the world and its people from the chaos that is growing. I prefer to believe that presenting facts clearly enough will change people’s minds and show them a better route into their more successful future. Thus, my efforts to create the Logarithmic Covid charts with their projections, and the Baby Shampoo cleansing of the sinuses to subdue the Covid viruses where they replicate, and the super-cheap flapper valve breathing filter mask for purifying air being breathed in and breathed out.

Those are among the routes I have been using to find a way out of the current public chaos and private anxiety.