Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World

The top blue line is a representation of the World Cases of Covid pandemic. It is curving slightly downward but it must go perfectly horizontal before the pandemic is over. That is likely to be at least a year away, and possibly two years before there are zero new cases. Unfortunately, the curve has been maintaining its slope during the summer months when people are not so prone to be indoors, but as the colder weather is coming there will be more people indoors which will result in more contagions. The Covid disease will thrive as never before, and that combined with the natural winter flu season will make people even sicker. Unfortunately, the vaccines are not going to be available for most people, and the authorities say they won’t be 100% effective, possibly only 50% effective.

The standard N95 face mask is over 90% effective. It is unknown how effective my face and nose washing with baby shampoo would be because it hasn’t even been experimented with, except by me and a few of my friends. It might be nearly 100% effective because soap, even in low concentrations, kills Covid. The method has been proven by years of use to be perfectly safe, even for babies. And, the cost is almost zero, with no unpleasant needles. We can be certain 1 drop per cup is effective because it forms bubbles when shaken in a bottle, and that means there is molecular-level surface tension which is what pulls the Covid virus apart.

Until you wash your face daily with dilute baby shampoo, it will be prudent to wear an N-95 mask when indoors and when near any people, even family members, who have been mixing with other people in public.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World

The current Covid-19 chart for the World and the largest seven countries is below. I chose these countries based on the assumption that by the end of this pandemic the population of a country will be an approximate measure of the total problem. That will probably be wrong because China has all but eliminated the Covid virus and will probably have access to the world’s creation of vaccines in a few years. The US has worked hard to discover vaccines but that takes time, and in the meantime, hundreds of thousands of American lives are being lost. China will exit from this pandemic as an even stronger player on the world’s economic stage.

The Covid disaster progresses smoothly with ever greater logarithmic growth. A ten times growth in one month at the beginning would be growing from one case to ten. However, at present, the same rate of growth would be going from fifty million to five hundred million. The curves would look the same but the suffering would be five hundred million times greater.

We haven’t entered that territory yet, but we are getting close with no hope in the immediate future from vaccines, and only little hope from face masks. The only hope is for you and most other people to use my technique of washing one’s face and nose with a mild dilution of baby shampoo. 1 drop per cupful of boiled water. It is convenient to put this solution into a beverage bottle for easy usage. The cost is about a penny for a month of applications. I have been doing this for months without the slightest problem. However, if you do this technique, blow your nose gently. You don’t need to blow the sinuses out vigorously to kill the Covid viruses. It is only necessary to cover them with a thin layer of baby shampoo.

Note, other forms of soap will work to kill Covid in the nose, but they are painful to apply to the sinuses, and baby shampoo is painless. See some earlier posts where I demonstrate my experiments with different methods of washing my sinuses.

Buy a bottle of Baby Shampoo and share it with hundreds of people.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World

The current Covid-19 chart for the World and the largest seven countries is below. I chose these countries based on the assumption that by the end of this pandemic the population of a country will be an approximate measure of the total problem. That will probably be wrong because China has all but eliminated the Covid virus and will probably have access to the world’s creation of vaccines in a few years. The US has worked hard to discover vaccines but that takes time, and in the meantime, hundreds of thousands of American lives are being lost. China will exit from this pandemic as an even stronger player on the world’s economic stage.

The chart above illustrates what happened since five days ago, and that is simply a continuation of the dashed projection lines from the existing curves. The broad blue curve at the top is the total world Covid cases, and because it represents such a large number of people, if nothing extraordinary happens about the current situation the dashed projection curve will probably be near the next published number. If that is true, there will be about 49 million known cases of Covid-19 and near 1.2 million known deaths attributable to that disease on November 1, 2020.

The sad thing for me is that my suggestion of using a dilute solution of baby shampoo to rinse the nostrils a few times per day to kill the Covid virus has fallen on a world of intentionally deafened ears. This procedure would cost about a penny per month, so it is not a question of cost, but the media shunning of the idea.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World.

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Baby shampoo against COVID, Color coded Covid disease chart, Covid, Covid in India, Covid logarithmic projections

A continuing five-day update of the Covid pandemic showing the summation of the whole World caseload and deaths. Also, there are similar treatments of the countries with populations of over two hundred million, and a comparison of this data with the 2014 Ebola epidemic in Africa.

Data for the Covid pandemic up to October 1st, 2020

This chart shows the last three months of the Covid pandemic to be remarkably consistent for the seven largest countries shown. The situation in India is particularly serious because the total number of cases is very large and the curve is steep.

Because of the crowding of the living conditions there, it would be reasonable to assume that everyone will be exposed over the coming months, and therefore every person should take maximum personal precautions for avoiding infection. My personal routine is to wash my face with Baby Shampoo and sniff a small amount into my nose because soap kills viruses. Also, I leave my hands and face to dry without wiping the water off, so there will be a thin layer of soap left on my face which will inhibit the virus.

Even if vaccines are developed it will probably not be available to most people in India soon enough to protect them from infection.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World.

Tags

Color coded Covid disease chart, Covid, Survival from COVID-19

These Covid pandemic charts have been updated every five days

Covid pandemic logarithmic chart of World cases and deaths, and the largest seven countries cases and deaths.

It seems strange to say but this graph is proceeding in so consistent a pattern that there isn’t much to be said that’s new. The sad problem is that on a logarithmic chart the vast numbers of people suffering and dying at the top don’t appear as scary as the few dying at the bottom. It is shocking to see the cases of Covid rise from ten on January 1, 2020, to twelve thousand on January 30, 2020. It is not so shocking to see the numbers rise from seventeen million on August 1, 2020, to twenty-five million on August 31, 2020. That comparison is twelve thousand versus eight million. That’s over six hundred times as many cases, but without six hundred times more interest, perhaps even less interest because we have grown numb to the scale of this Covid pandemic catastrophe.

In my part of the world, Deschutes County, Oregon, USA, we have gone from a hand-full of cases in March, which wouldn’t pose much of a risk to a hundred thousand people, to 810 today. That means over a hundred times more risk now than in spring, but people don’t seem a hundred times more careful.

When the weather cools to 43 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the ideal temperature for airborne sneezes and coughs to transmit droplets containing the disease, things will get worse. That coupled with the fact that we will be spending more time indoors with other people nearby to us, compounds the risk of catching the Covid disease.

Our individual personal risk is much greater now than eight months ago because there are vast and unknown numbers of people now carrying the disease compared to then.

So, obey the official suggestions for protecting yourself and your loved ones, and consider my suggestion that when you wash your face, include your nostrils and eyelids with a mild soap like Baby Shampoo a couple of times per day.

Covid will pass a million deaths by October 1, 2020

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Covid update

The cases and deaths continue to grow logarithmically

This is my continuing presentation of the Covid Pandemic. There is nothing unusual in the data as it is taken from standard sources. The only thing unique is the presentation, and that does demonstrate some valuable lessons. Perhaps the strangest thing is the nearly four months of straight-line growth of the World cases and deaths.  This has happened even though considerable efforts have been made to inform the public to wear masks and keep social distancing when in public. Those and the other promoted procedures help to slow the spread of the Covid virus, but they don’t prevent the public from catching and spreading the disease. It won’t be until the entire population gets vaccinated or catches the disease and develops antibodies to suppress the disease that the death rate will ease up.

My personal thoughts are that soap has been proven to kill the Covid virus, and that baby shampoo is so mild a soap that people can easily tolerate getting it into their eyes and nose and sinuses. This procedure will kill the viruses in the sinuses where it usually penetrates into the cells.

Ultimately that infection may be a good thing because if the disease can be limited to the victim’s sinuses, using the baby shampoo, they would develop antibodies without much risk of dying. It is when the disease enters the lungs that it becomes deadly.

These people would be less likely to spread the disease, and when next year’s development of the disease presents itself they will have partial protection. Over several years the disease will probably kill fewer people, but in the meantime it is deadly.

 

Covid finds its ideal entry point in the nose.

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Curing Covid, Curing COVID-19, Preventing Covid infections

It has been reported in Science Daily

Key nose cells identified as likely COVID-19 virus entry points

Human Cell Atlas study could help understand the transmission of the virus

Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute

April 23, 2020 – Two specific nose cell types have been identified as likely initial infection points for COVID-19 coronavirus. Scientists discovered that goblet and ciliated cells in the nose have high levels of the entry proteins that the COVID-19 virus uses to get into our cells, which could help explain the high rate of transmission. The study with Human Cell Atlas Lung Biological Network found cells in the eye and some other organs also contain the viral-entry proteins.

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This is welcome news to me because it supports my theory that washing the nose and sinuses with a mild soap such as Baby Shampoo will help in preventing Covid infections. In this link there are the scientific reasons that Soap is a potent killer of viruses. The link is from a reputable source, The World Economic Forum.

My combining those two articles into a workable Covid suppressor is that sniffing some diluted soap suds into the nose when washing one’s face might be enough to prevent catching the Covid disease.

I am moving my head side to side to make the solution flow around in my sinuses after getting a teaspoon full of solution into my nose. It is then blown out into the sink.

I have been promoting the flushing of the sinuses and nose with Baby Shampoo for several months by using a dilution of one drop of Baby Shampoo per 100 milliliters (one cup) of distilled water, or boiled water if distilled water isn’t available. The articles quoted above only mention the nose cells and handwashing. The researchers may not have probed into the sinuses but that may be because they didn’t choose to irritate people’s sinuses.

“Dr. Waradon Sungnak, the first author on the paper from Wellcome Sanger Institute, said: ‘We found that the receptor protein — ACE2 — and the TMPRSS2 protease that can activate SARS-CoV-2 entry are expressed in cells in different organs, including the cells on the inner lining of the nose. We then revealed that mucus-producing goblet cells and ciliated cells in the nose had the highest levels of both these COVID-19 virus proteins, of all cells in the airways. This makes these cells the most likely initial infection route for the virus.'”

The obvious conclusion of these reports is to rinse the sinuses daily with a non-irritating solution of soap and flush away the exposed Covid viruses.

Covid continues to grow exponentially

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Covid logarithmic chart update

There isn’t much to be said anymore about Covid, except that it continues to grow exponentially, and until one of the vaccines is available there isn’t much an individual can do except follow the plaid advice of the authorities. If all goes well the Oxford vaccine might be available in volume in a couple of months. My baby shampoo nasal wash is available instantly but isn’t being used by anyone except me and a few of my friends.

Covid has killed more than 823,000 people and is growing exponentially as is shown on this chart.

The Covid pandemic is likely to get worse for several more months so lay up a couple months of emergency food supplies if you can.

 

 

Covid grows logarithmically with seven billion humans to go

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A supply of food at home, Covid is getting worse, Govid is getting worse, Prepare for a month

Covid grows logarithmically in a human population unless there is something to interrupt its growth, which at the moment is social distancing and face masks. Each of those is partially effective in slowing the spread, but ultimately, as with the flu, everyone is going to be exposed.

The top blue line shows the total number of Covid cases worldwide has been growing smoothly for four months.

Follow the US  Center for Disease Control (CDC) suggestions for controlling Covid. “Know how it spreads, Wash your hands often,  Avoid close contact, Cover your mouth and nose with a mask when around others, Cover coughs and sneezes, Clean and disinfect, Monitor Your Health Daily,” But it is obvious that washing hands and rinsing them often isn’t enough because if your hands are clean, the instant your hands touch a contaminated surface you are immediately at risk when you touch your nose. To correct that problem I have been suggesting washing your hands with Baby Shampoo when you rinse your sinuses and letting them dry with a light coating of the soap still on your hands. The soap will help kill the Covid viruses.

I have been rinsing my sinuses with Baby Shampoo, diluted one drop to one cup of water, for several months to find a level that is comfortable, and to make sure there isn’t any unpleasant side effect for others. Even if my sinuses are exposed, it takes a while for the disease to establish itself in the sinuses and washing the sinuses three times per day may prevent them from infecting any sinus cells. Holding some of the solution in my nose with my fingers and rocking my head back to a level position seems to help spread the solution. I will make a YouTube video of this soon.

Another suggestion, which I haven’t encountered yet, is to keep a minimum of a month’s supply of essentials in your home so if you get sick or your community gets sick you can stay totally away from other people.

The Covid disease is probably going to get worse for several more months so it is a good idea to prepare for that problem now while it is easy to do.

 

 

 

The emotional stress of the news is hurting people

The Covid pandemic is worldwide and that is the definition of a pandemic. So far, the total number of people dying is a relatively small percentage of the population. However, because it is a new disease everyone will eventually be exposed, and in a couple of years after people’s own immune systems have learned how to cope with it, the Covid will become a background disease like the common cold. In the meantime, we must treat this as a real problem and treat it as a serious threat and take easy precautions such as wearing a mask in public and avoiding sick people.

On my logarithmic charts of the Covid pandemic, I have suggested that the maximum deaths from the disease in its present form might go as high as 400 million people. That fantastic number is based on the death rate being 5% of the 8,000 million people. (5% of 8 billion people.) That number isn’t an existential threat to the human species but it is a real threat to our equanimity and has been a real problem for the high percentage of people who must work in close proximity to other people. If a person is in constant contact with large numbers of the public, they are going to be exposed frequently. If they were to follow my suggestions for cleansing their sinuses several times per day with a normal baby shampoo dilution their infection rate would drop. That alone might bring the Covid pandemic to an end. Of course, there hasn’t been any interest in this possibility, so we will never know if it works, or not.

Being almost 85 years old I am in the high-risk category, but I am also in the category of people that don’t have much need to mix with the public so my risk isn’t quite so high.

Of course, people who are responsible for the public are often times, let me be polite and not call them stupid; instead, I will call them overworked and distracted by their other duties. However, letting 2,750 metric tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate be stored for years near downtown Beirut, Lebanon, does seem to go beyond being distracted by overwork. Over that period of time, there must have been hundreds of people who recognized the danger and didn’t bring it to the attention of the people responsible, or if that didn’t work to go to the newspapers. The newspaper slogan “If it bleeds it leads!” doesn’t seem to suggest in editors’ minds that the risk of bleeding from some obvious actions would bring catastrophe.

Because that ship carrying the ammonium nitrate was a major political issue, and their cargo was unloaded into the warehouse at the dock, every adult in the city must have known of the problem and of the possibility of the explosion that only needed a tiny spark to make it happen. That coupled to the fact that a major portion of the food for the whole country of Lebanon was stored right next to the potential explosion.

Must I go on? People are stupid when it comes to predicting the future, even though we are named Homo sapiens, the wise ones. Wise because we can predict some futures.