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Probaway – Life Hacks

~ Many helpful hints on living your life more successfully.

Search results for: unknown unknowns

Start looking for the unknown unknowns !

23 Saturday Nov 2013

Posted by probaway in research

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Finding knowables in the unknown, Finding unknown ideas, Methods for searching the unknown

How can anyone start looking for the unknown unknowns? What can I or anyone say, except,”Watch for anything that is unusual and doesn’t fit a local environment.” Even though there have been in excess of one hundred billion people live on this earth, there are probably things which any of those people could have observed which would change our way of seeing the world. Chances are that once someone says one of these unknown unknowns that are perfectly knowable, then everyone will think, or say something like, “I knew that all along.” Isaac Newton’s laws are my favorite example. For every action there is an equal reaction. That is so simple a statement, and yet it changed the world, because it made inertia a real thing and it made it easy to compute how much force was needed to move objects. If something weighs twice as much as another object you must push twice as hard to get it to move a given distance. It is obvious, but when it is stated clearly it can be used for many more complex actions.

I suspect that many famous quotations have in them a kernel of the unknown unknowns buried in them, and that is why they carry weight. In reading A New Dictionary of Quotations on Historical Principles from Ancient and Modern Sources, by H. L. Mencken it becomes apparent that the quotations upon a given subject, which are arranged by date over the centuries, get clearer and more precise. When this process is happening, and consistently happening over thousands of years, it is a clear indicator that something even more profound is probably still there in the unknown to be revealed. All it takes is arranging a few words in just the right sequence to reveal the deeper idea.

There were old literary contests in the 1950’s offering prizes for saying something on a given topic in twenty-five words or less. It was an archaic precursor of Twitter and its limitation to 140 characters. Probably even that limiting format could be used to publish and distribute truly profound new revelations. If only you said just the right words.

I did some patent research several years ago, and discovered the same phenomenon of improvement with inventions; that is, some invention based on some obscure idea  kept getting better over the years. What was strange is that some of the patents that came out a hundred years later, and functioned much better, could have been proposed at the very beginning. One strange example of this is the symbol of terrorism, the spherical bomb with a fuse burning at the top. That was two hemispheres of molded lead held together by running a bolt through them from north to south. It was difficult to make, and didn’t contain the explosive powder very well, and thus didn’t function very well as a bomb. Nowadays the exact same type of bomb was used in the Boston Marathon bombing, but used standard home pressure cooker  pots for the container. Those can be bought at a thrift store for a couple of bucks, and will contain the explosion much better. But these are all simple pipe bombs which can be easily made from any standard plumbing pipe.

Unusual observations are difficult to remember because they have weak links to standard observation.

It is important to carry a notebook with you at all times to write down unusual observations.

Make the unknown unknowns into new and useful things.

22 Friday Nov 2013

Posted by probaway in research

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Exploring for unknowns, Make unknown unknowns useful, Unknown unknowns

Seeking a general strategy for reaching for the unknown unknowns and making the finding of them useful.

  1. Watch for anything that is unusual and doesn’t fit a local environment.
  2. Seek and find nearby data points with similar characteristics.
  3. Seek trends and project them, and fill in the points between.
  4. Observe splitting points and study them in all dimensions.
  5. Approach and view the unusual things for similarities and differences.
  6. Apply alternate scan methods to discovered points, including nearby ones.
  7. View data and the things from as many alternate dimensions as possible.
  8. Generate alternate hypothesis’ of what might be there.
  9. Test validity of detected materials against hypothesis with different methods.
  10. Attempt to gestalt the various views into a grander observable coherent item.
  11. Create, sustain and destroy some data points and  re-gestalt the whole.
  12. Control the items behavior, and direct them into new behaviors.
  13. Find new uses for the controlled items behaviors.
  14. Present findings to colleagues and publish findings to the public.
  15. Ask for feedback, opinions and challenges to data, observing methods, theory.
  16. Combine item with existing things to make useful to the public.
  17. Check on possibilities of scaling up and mass production.
  18. Sell item through preëxisting channels.
  19. Find alternate uses for item, and support those who seek alternate uses.
  20. Remember the grander impact and prepare for environmental controls.
  21. Prepare for permanent disposal of worn out and discarded items.

Seeking to make the unknown unknowns into new and useful things.

Seeking steps from the known knowns to the unknown unknowns.

21 Thursday Nov 2013

Posted by probaway in research

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Camouflage theory, List of camouflage techniques, Searching for unknown unknowns, Unknown unknowns

The apparent final word on wisdom was made by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld when he pondered over the unknown unknowns. He was worried about enemy plans, but the public loved his phrase “unknown unknowns”. What this series of posts is attempting to do is find a gradation, from the known knowns to the unknown unknowns, in an effort to better understand the obscuring factors associated with each step. If we are to search into the unknown unknowns of reality, and not get lost in the infinity of speculative unknowables, it seems reasonable to first create a general theory of what is preventing us from finding the knowable unknowns. In all likelihood there is a large number of now existing unknown knowables.

This quest isn’t the same as scientific exploration, as that process is generally limited to exploring the periphery of the known world, searching for aberrations to be fixed with better theories. Science is building on the known world by adding to well tested theories by challenging what is known with testable errors in the current working theory, and from the errors to refine a new theory to better fit what is known. It is feeling forward from the edge of the known, and not groping out into what appears to be the untestable unknown unknowns.

We need a method for getting past the obscuring things and finding the knowable unknowns. The first steps are to identify unusual things and verify that they really exist. These speculations seeking into the unknown unknowns to find knowable things residing at present within the unknown started with camouflage; but as that idea was explored it became apparent that even that generalized concept hadn’t been considered very deeply previously. Even though a brilliant and experienced man like Rumsfeld had spent billions of US dollars on military camouflage, there were obvious failures. The money went for such things as redesigning military personnel’s clothing to match the Iraq deserts instead of the Vietnam jungles. This new clothing it was said was designed after the soldiers were already in the field, but such an obvious mistake must have been misreporting. Hum? Even my quickly prepared list below goes far deeper than simply matching the camouflage to the background color. Let us consider first nature’s efforts at camouflage, a DNA-driven type of camouflage of perceptual reality: coloration and shape to background, hiding, distancing – visual, audio, behavioral  – It is followed with defensive/aggressive actions with weapons such as teeth, claws, and armor. Intelligent behavior, hiding by animals: such as freezing, flocking. There will be an order of seeking into the unknown unknowns.

  1. Detection of unusual data points in any realm obscuring factors
    1. Camouflage  ♥ making things difficult to discover (Hearts ♥ go to more links.)
    2. Crypsis – is a DNA-driven selected ability of an organism to avoid detection or sustained observation by other organisms.
      1. Nocturnality – using low light to become obscure
      2. Subterranean – living below ground avoids surface depredation
      3. Stillness – not moving lessens visibility
      4. Transparency – allowing light to pass through body
      5. Counter-shading – illuminated side made darker, shaded areas lighter
      6. Counter-shadowing – flattening to have edges blended into a surface
      7. Patchiness – breaks up larger silhouette outlines
      8. Patterning – making colors and shapes mimic background
      9. Mimicry – looking and acting like the background environment
      10. Flocking – creating confusion for predators by many random actions
      11. Herding – healthy members hiding behind slower moving sick ones
      12. Distance – getting far away from a predators habitat, migration
      13. Dead – appearing dead is unappetizing to some predators
      14. Deimatic – sudden faking behaviors and displays simulating threat
    3. Mimesis – DNA-driven mimicry pretending to be dangerous
      1. Batesian   ♥ a harmless mimic poses as harmful model
      2. Müllerian  ♥ two harmful species similarly advertise harmfulness
      3. Aposematism  ♥ multi-modal signal warning, bold, odors, colors, sounds
      4. Frequency-dependent selection – doesn’t outnumber its nasty model

      Those are some methods of camouflage, but a general theory which is going deeper into the unobserved is being pursued. I will go beyond natural DNA-driven Camouflages into the Veils, and Fogs and whatever else I can find. That is where the natural living unknowns might be found, but similar search strategies should reveal the unknowns in non-living realities such as mathematical, verbal and emotional. After those subjects obscuring what exists are reviewed, dissected and amplified, a more productive search into human-motivated deceit will be possible and should be more productive. It should be easy to take the theory beyond … Surface camouflage – military decoration camouflage

      1. Front – fabric patterns
      2. Embedded – ghillie suits of local materials
      3. Behind – positioning behind opaque objects

This is a huge subject so there will be much more to come. It will take time and effort!

What unknown unknowns should we avoid?

16 Saturday Nov 2013

Posted by probaway in research

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Limits of the unknown unknowns, Searching the unknowns, Seeing phantoms

The potentially knowable but unknown unknowns are limited. They are probably vast in number, and yet they are limited. However, the nonexistent unknown unknowns are infinite in number. The act of postulating some impossible thing doesn’t make it available for use. Just because 90% of people believe in personal angels watching over their every action and protecting them from their personal devils doesn’t make them real or useful. Believing in nonexistent things doesn’t make the nonexistent things real.

When looking into the infinite fog of speculation, there are an infinite number of phantoms and a limited number of facts.

To some extent we cannot search without believing there may be something there to be found, but there must be some method to the search so that we may not waste the entirety of our time and energy. Also, make the search such that we know when we have not found anything. Of course, when we do find anything tangible then we should exert considerable effort to try to link it to other tangible things, but we should avoid phantoms which vanish when you try to grasp them.

We should avoid speculative ideas that are based solely on wishful thinking. We may search into the unknown, but when something isn’t working it is time to move on. Grip tenaciously when there is something there, but abandon the search and let go of nothing quickly when there isn’t.

Albert Einstein wrote – Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will take you everywhere.

That is a wonderful idea, by one of humanity’s most productive thinkers, because it emphasized that logical thinking is limited because it is based on known material. It only goes from one known place to some other known place that, if you follow the same logic, will always get you to exactly the same other place. It is going from one known to another known, so it isn’t saying anything that isn’t readily available to be known by someone who knows the logic. 1 + 1 = 2 was an important discovery when it was first made, but after that it is simple memorization for most people, like 12 times 12 equals 144. That number isn’t mentally computed each time it is said; it is a memorized thought. It’s a known known. Most people may not know what 12 times 13 is because they haven’t memorized that fact, but they would admit that it is a known known and just unknown to them at the moment. Any number multiplied by any other number provides us with a knowable number, it’s a known to be knowable number, a knowable unknown. This is known to be true even if then unknown number is a very obscure, very large number. It is the type of abstract reality that has an absolute abstract answer.

Physical reality isn’t necessarily the same as abstract reality; for example, one can look at smaller and smaller things through increasingly powerful microscopes, and other techniques, but there comes a smallness, called the Planck limit, beyond which things cease to be specific and are only random probabilities. Thus when we are seeking into unknowns we should be aware that sometimes we will be going into realms where things no longer have sharply defined answers on an individual trial, but are accurate with a very large number of trials.

In a similar way some pure speculations might sometimes come into the realm of highly probable on a large scale of trials, but still be unusual even rare events on an individual highly specific definition of time and place. We must be careful when reaching into the unknown unknowns not to grasp something too unusual. And when we grasp anything, even in the known world, to subject it to all the tests we can bring to bear to verify its characteristics. When in the world of the unknowns, and having only slight understanding, the multiple views in multiple dimensions and times may well reveal new qualities.

The unknown may be unknown but we won’t find it unless we look.

Seeing through camouflage into the unknown unknowns.

14 Thursday Nov 2013

Posted by probaway in research

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Camouflage theory, Finding unknown ideas, Multi-scopic searching, Searching into the unknown unknowns, Seeing through camouflage

Camouflage is highly dependent upon the point of view of the viewer. Camouflage can be exposed with sufficient stereoscopic vision, movement of the object, or movement of the viewer which gives a different view or even better enhances stereoscopic vision, or by adding any other potential sense to the perception, such as other wavelengths of light, or of touch, smell, taste, radar, echo, shadow, inertia, startle, distraction or movement. Anything that adds additional, perhaps even seemingly unrelated factors which the brain can process helps see through the camouflage; to see the camouflage as separate from the object. If any tiny thing can be observed separate from the camouflage, when the camouflage in that observing dimension is removed, then that now visible thing can be more easily observed in the other dimensions. When that almost invisible observation can be added to almost invisible observations from some other point of view, or other observing dimension, the combination makes the target thing more visible. Multidimensional camouflage is more obscuring, but is harder to create than a single-surface camouflage like the colorful clothing patterns used by soldiers, and multidimensional camouflage requires multidimensional thought processes and efforts to create and maintain. When any part of the target can be seen, even if it is only an unrecognizable part, all of these obscuring factors can be seen through and adding a little more detail permits a Gestalt, an ah-ha, and the new target reality stands naked before our vision.

The term camouflage is generally limited to intentional obfuscation of some item by human actions, or with naturally living things as a selection-driven DNA adaptation to routinely encountered life-changing situations. As English doesn’t have a good general but unique word for a natural obscuring of information the word camouflage will be used in a more generalized abstract sense. The words veil, or obscure, or fog, or noise would usually be synonyms, but what is needed to be implied by our chosen term for this effect is that there need not be a human intent to conceal. For example, Isaac Newton’s laws were not intentionally camouflaged or intentionally hidden by anyone, or any positive feedback life process. Newton’s laws were there for everyone to use and comment upon, on a daily basis, but Newton made the veil transparent, and the underlying natural laws obvious. For every action there is an equal and opposite force of resistance, a reaction. Once the emotional and intentional qualities of the word camouflage are removed the term functions well. The term veil implies a single semitransparent surface, from which a single removal will make the obscured objects obvious, but that is rarely the case with unknown unknowns. The term fog would be better than veil because it implies a deeper and more continuous obscuring factor, but fog isn’t specific enough it’s too foggy, and sometime camouflage is a single surface, and sometimes it is only within the mind of the perceiver. By these subtitles of word use the standard military clothing would not be called camouflage but a veil, because it is only one layer; but a multi-layered ghillie suit could still be called camouflage.

Once the hidden object is perceived as the foreground-subject-of-attention to the brain, the gestalting process of the brain quickly fills in the whole gestalt of the object. What was not comprehended by any one sense suddenly becomes a coherent part of a whole, when combined with the others, and the now easily comprehended whole is easily perceived by each of the previously separated senses. This gestalting is the unconscious functioning of the brain, where it pulls together various levels of information into a pattern that the conscious mind comprehends.

Here is a practical concrete example: once the gestalting person has identified the previously hidden object the camouflage becomes counter-productive in the case of the camouflaged enemy soldier. The camouflaged soldier doesn’t realize he is no longer invisible, and the camouflage becomes an encumbrance which is itself visible, and not an obscuring device. From the moment the observer has gestalted the camouflage or the hidden soldier and his cohorts they become easily recognizable targets, and once observed they can be destroyed, or worse from the discovered enemy soldiers’ point of view, manipulated to other even more disastrous ends by being presented with attractive distractions. Thus, revealing a camouflaged item can be a great asset to the discoverer because it confers power well beyond the simple knowledge of existence of the item. It is similar to spying on the inner thoughts of an opponent, and thus gaining the ability to manipulate their thoughts and their actions. That ability may have implications well beyond a simple observation.

This form of perception from multiple conceptual vantage points can be called multi-scopic in that it scopes the intended target from multiple viewpoints. All of these viewpoints need not be visual, but can be any form of potentially revealing the target object. Even seeming unrelated or previously unavailable tests could be applied to the target, such as bumping the environment, or generating a gust of wind or observing more specifically the natural occurrences that would create alternate almost imperceptible changes in the target, except that these tiny disturbances could be timed for the effect and thus observed. When a new input is observed the various viewpoints for the brain to gestalt the effects then become available, and when that happens a considerable amount of previously undigested material will become meaningful information and all the information will suddenly become a coherent whole.

This gestalting process is probably what gives rise to what has been observed many times as the “ah-ha” moment. It is when a person struggling to comprehend a problem turns on an additional sensing system, and at that moment of a different view, a gestalt flash of insight instantly reveals the formerly hidden identity. It may happen so quickly that the additional mode of viewing isn’t even perceived as operating, but the item appears to suddenly reveal itself in all of its various dimensions. Once the item is gestalted it becomes easier to see again and again from different perspectives, and as the various views are combined and tested the subtle qualities of the new discovery become easy to see, and the potentially new and useful qualities become available.

It may seem impossible to know what is beyond the veil, the fog, the camouflage, but when we look at history and see that such simple and seemingly obvious things as Newton’s Laws were discovered after tens of billions of humans had lived, and even used the laws, we can reasonably assume there are other equally obvious things remaining to be discovered. This is why we should look into the foggy random noise of the unknown and watch for tiny observed sparks of apparent meaninglessness, and then apply all of the other modes of observation to that spark. When a second perception is found near there we must be prepared to ramp up the other tools to their focused intensity, and apply whatever is needed to get the moment of gestalting which gives the ability to generate a published abstraction which clearly shows to others what can be perceived, valued and used.

A journey into the unknown unknowns.

07 Thursday Nov 2013

Posted by probaway in research

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Off we go into the unknown but knowable unknowns., Searching for unknown unknowns

Seeking the unknowns.

Undiscovered things are unknown, and therefore it is difficult to begin a search. What I want to explore with a series of posts are ways of searching for the unknown, with  some examples of what discoveries might be found.

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said, There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know. – Those are the ones that are the most worrisome. It is those things we don’t know and don’t even know we don’t know, that I am going to be searching for. This is obviously a fool’s journey, and the path must be trodden by someone with time and energy to waste.

I want to go much further, but an example of one idea I have been exploring has to do with observing convergence of ideas and behavior in one situation, also being found in a distant other situation, and perhaps in yet another even more isolated situation. The idea here is that if similar things are happening in different situations there must be some underlying reason for that convergent behavior. If a statement can be made that abstractly covers all of these situations, then it should be possible to find other examples in other places where the newly stated abstract theory might be applied with success. The intermediate spaces ought to respond to the theory, but perhaps the theory could be applied outside of known space and time. Underlying the convergent processes would be some system of positive feedback for each of the species of process involved. Single events produce single results, but to get major variations generally requires multiple events. It is a positive feedback process that has greatest power for change, and it is the single event producing single results, without positive feedback, that is the limiting factor in most philosophies. Consider Zeno’s paradox of a rabbit’s repeatedly going only half way to to a turtle and so it never gets to the turtle; it’s a series of single events without positive feedback, and no inertia. It is these types of dead-end conundrums which a searcher into the unknown must learn to identify and pass on by without wasting too much time.

I will begin my journey into the unknown unknowns by exploring the factors hiding real things from our observation. Once we see clearly what prevents us from seeing things which are available to be seen, and not wasting time on distractions, it will be easier to remove the obscuring factors. The theory of camouflage will provide a large number of examples, because it is a necessity in nearly all living systems to respond to predation. The idea of camouflage has already been discussed at length by others since Darwin, involving animals, plants and military operations, and there are theories on how to best apply those ideas to each of these special situations. But the underlying camouflage theory can also be applied to other situations which the people involved would not have thought about under the term camouflage. For example, cooking, clothing, housing, music, news reporting … I have specific things in mind for each of these, but the principles of military camouflage have not been applied in each of these other more peaceful fields. An underlying strategy is probably applicable in many situations for hiding things which is to hide or to distract from the main message.

This is not a journey like Star Trek, which was going where no man had gone before, and telling sentimental stories about the trip. That was a fictional journey into distant fantasy realms, but this newly proposed journey is into real but, at present, unknown realms.

Off we go into the search for the unknown but hopefully knowable unknowns.

What are the unknown unknowns?

06 Monday May 2013

Posted by probaway in inventions

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Finding new answers., The edges of reality., The unknown unknowns.

The former US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, made a famous statement about “things”:

As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns.
That is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know
we don’t know.

—Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing

This eloquent quote points up what we need. We need to find a way to ask the right questions. The things we as a species know we can find in our common-sense experience, and coupled with that our educational system can add a layer of factual data based on experience that is greater than what we can learn as wild living individuals. As social beings with access to the internet and Google search we can easily find answers to a multitude of problems which might confront us. The internet gives us common people access to the known answers which we personally do not know, but which have been discovered by the 30 odd billions of people who have ever lived, and passed into human knowledge.

Then come the unknown unknowns. They are difficult to discover because they lie outside of current wisdom. If our knowledge has a gap, that gap can usually be filled by careful search or confabulated over with reasoned excuses. Sometimes this is elegant, like imaginary numbers in mathematics, but sometimes it is little more than pretty bandages over human fears, like reincarnation. These are in the realm of known unknowns; but the most fascinating question would be what are the unknown unknowns? Also, what are the unknowable unknowns?

Is there life similar to human life on the most distant galaxies? That is probably an unknowable unknown, although if natural processes work as they do in our known world there probably is life, but we can never contact it and so we can never know for sure. The question of life within our Milky Way galaxy is unknown at present, but it is a question that might someday be answered, and thus it is a potentially knowable unknown. We can understand the difficulties of these types of unknowns, and live with the non-knowing.

Now for the really important question of the unknown unknowns that can be known if we ask the right questions, or perhaps discover something by accident that leads to a new unknown. It was unknown because we hadn’t made the right observation, or it was unknown because we hadn’t asked the right question. Back in Berkeley at the Cafe Mediterraneum in the 1960s+, I used to set out a piece of blank paper and a pencil and say, “If you write the right thing on that paper you can totally change humanity.” I may have given that challenge to many famous and infamous people, but I never once saw anyone write something then and there that did anything earthshaking or even Med-shaking. Some of them did do great things, but not there.

I suspect that it is when a person is trying to do something really new that they are forced to step well outside of the known boxes for answers, and it is there that really new things come into being. Usually they fail, but when they succeed, and occasionally they do succeed, humanity is changed forever.

Albert Einstein told Yuan Lee his ideas were foolish, but Lee got a Nobel Prize.

Predicting the unknown unknowns of Doomsday

09 Tuesday Dec 2008

Posted by probaway in Uncategorized

≈ 8 Comments

The former US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld made a famous statement about “things”:

As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns.
That is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know
we don’t know.

—Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing

Doomsday will probably come from some concatenation of unknowns from the collision of two or more predictable knowns but in some unanticipated and unknown way. The most likely type of problems of this type will be shortfalls of some previously known necessity. That is there will be something which is absolutely needed and which is realized is coming into short supply but where there is a hoped for replacement but when those replacements are requested they are found to be insufficient. When an effort is made to use some other resource for a fall back substitute it will too be found to be insufficient and thus a cascade of failures precipitates a progressive collapse. When this cascade of failure progresses and a realization of the impending collapse of alternatives becomes well appreciated it will cause desperate actions to be taken by some parties and then a general panic will overtake all parties. When this condition strikes the people in charge of some major weapons system the full blown effects of Doomsday will soon be upon us.

There are many things which could compound in this way to make this hideous mess and trigger the collapse but in the end it may be something even more trivial than the more obvious ones in the following list:

  1. Loss of topsoil
  2. Desertification
  3. Deforestation
  4. Toxic poisoning of drinking water
  5. Oceanic pollution
  6. Shrinking wetlands
  7. Overgrazing
  8. Loss of wilderness areas
  9. Species loss
  10. Shortage of firewood
  11. Exhaustion of oil reserves
  12. Exhaustion of mineral resources
  13. Siltation in rivers and estuaries
  14. Encroachment of human habitat on arable land
  15. Dropping water tables
  16. Erosion of the ozone layer
  17. CO2 accumulation
  18. Global warming
  19. Rising sea levels
  20. Nuclear wastes
  21. Acid rain
  22. Human and plant disease

This list is based in part upon, Paul Demeny Population and Development Review 1190 Vol. 16 p. 416.

All of these environmental problems are already upon us to some degree and all of them are aggravated by more human population. They are long term, multi-decade, problems and they are resistant to quick fixes. They must be healed by Earth’s natural processes. Each of them has a deleterious effect upon each of the others and there are probably unforseen interactions between them which will prove worse than any one taken seperately. The political interactions will also affect everyone and be interactive and when these are compounded with economic complications which affect the world economy there may be chaos which is unrelated to the items on the list but which aggravates something and generates a general progressive collapse. The unknown unknowns are in the interactions between these known problems but when they occur together they will create very real effects.

Measuring the Unmeasurable: Future unknowns

04 Saturday May 2024

Posted by probaway in inventions

≈ Leave a comment

This analysis explores the complex and often paradoxical relationship between the “future unknowns” concept and various emotional and spiritual experiences. In some cases, such as relieved survival or a high thrill, the experience itself may bring a heightened awareness of the inherent uncertainty and unpredictability of the future as the individual confronts the precarious, ever-changing nature of existence. In other cases, such as dreamy intoxication or cheerful pleasure, the experience may offer a temporary escape or respite from the anxieties and concerns about the future, allowing the individual to immerse themselves in the beauty and wonder of the present moment.

At the same time, the analysis suggests that there may be deeper, more transformative ways of relating to the unknown and unknowable aspects of the future, such as through the cultivation of contented graciousness or the realization of sublime blessedness. These experiences often involve embracing the mystery and uncertainty of existence, recognizing the inherent limitations of our knowledge and control, and learning to trust in the unfolding of life’s possibilities with openness, curiosity, and faith.

Ultimately, the relationship between the concept of “future unknowns” and these various experiences invites us to confront the fundamental questions of human existence, such as the nature of time, the meaning of change, and the possibility of transcendence. By exploring the role of uncertainty and unpredictability in our lives, we can perhaps develop a more nuanced and compassionate understanding of ourselves and others, recognizing the universal challenges and opportunities that arise from the ever-shifting landscape of the future. At the same time, we must remain open to the transformative power of experiences that dissolve our past, present, and future concepts, revealing the timeless, eternal nature of reality and the ultimate insignificance of temporal concerns. Only by cultivating a wise and open-hearted approach to the unknown, one that embraces both the mystery and the beauty of existence, can we hope to navigate the uncharted waters of the future with grace, resilience, and joy.


  1. Relieved survival: The experience of relieved survival often brings a heightened awareness of the unpredictable nature of the future, as the individual’s brush with death serves as a stark reminder of the inherent uncertainty and precariousness of existence.
  2. Reveling riot: The chaotic, uncontrolled energy of a reveling riot may reflect a collective disregard for the future consequences of one’s actions, as the participants’ wild abandon and destruction prioritize the fleeting pleasures of the moment over their community’s long-term stability and well-being.
  3. Dreamy intoxication: The altered state of dreamy intoxication may offer a temporary escape from the anxieties and uncertainties of the future, as the individual’s expanded consciousness allows them to immerse themselves in the beauty and wonder of the present moment.
  4. Nympholeptic orgasm: The intense, all-consuming nature of a nympholeptic orgasm may provide a brief respite from worries and concerns about the future, as the individual’s complete surrender to the moment erases all thoughts of the past or future and reveals the timeless, eternal quality of ecstatic union.
  5. Joyous communion: The shared experience of joyous communion often creates a sense of timeless, eternal connection that transcends the uncertainties and limitations of the future. The participants’ collective celebration of love, friendship, and unity affirms the enduring power and resilience of the human spirit.
  6. Jolly merriment: The lighthearted, spontaneous nature of jolly merriment may reflect a carefree attitude towards the future, as the participants’ laughter and good cheer prioritize the joys and pleasures of the present moment over the potential risks and challenges of the unknown.
  7. High thrill: The adrenaline-fueled intensity of high-thrill experiences often involves a direct confrontation with the uncertain and unpredictable nature of the future. The individual’s willingness to take risks and push beyond their comfort zone reflects a bold, adventurous approach to life’s unknowns.
  8. Exuberant triumph: The experience of exuberant triumph may bring a renewed sense of confidence and optimism about the future, as the individual’s success and achievement serve as a powerful affirmation of their ability to overcome obstacles and shape their own destiny.
  9. Jubilant satisfaction: The deep sense of jubilant satisfaction that comes with realizing a long-held dream or aspiration may reflect a newfound faith in the possibilities of the future, as the individual’s accomplishment is a testament to the power of perseverance, vision, and hope.
  10. Cheerful pleasure: The simple, carefree nature of cheerful pleasure may offer a momentary respite from the uncertainties and complexities of the future, as the individual’s joy and contentment affirm the value and meaning of the present moment.
  11. Contented graciousness: The cultivation of contented graciousness often involves a deep acceptance of the unknown and unpredictable nature of the future, as the individual’s inner peace and equanimity arise from a willingness to embrace the full spectrum of life’s possibilities with openness, curiosity, and trust.
  12. Delighted fulfillment: The experience of delighted fulfillment may bring a renewed sense of clarity and purpose about the future, as realizing one’s deepest aspirations and potential provides a guiding vision and direction for the journey ahead.
  13. Sublime blessedness: The transcendent experience of sublime blessedness often dissolves all concepts of past, present, and future, as the individual’s direct encounter with divine reality reveals the timeless, eternal nature of existence and the ultimate insignificance of temporal concerns.
  14. Blissful contentment: The deep, unshakable peace of blissful contentment may reflect a profound acceptance of the future’s unknown and unknowable nature. The individual’s unconditional embrace of the present moment arises from a recognition of the inherent perfection and wholeness of reality, beyond all concepts of time and change.
  15. Seraphic enlightenment: When a person reaches the highest level of seraphic enlightenment, they have no more thoughts of the past, the present, or the future. They have direct knowledge of the absolute reality, which erases all feelings of separation, lack, or becoming and shows them the eternal, unchanging nature of themselves and the universe.

In the shadows of unknowns

15 Wednesday Apr 2015

Posted by probaway in research

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Making shadows in the unknowns, Searching into the unknown unknowns, Unknown unknowns

There are a series of Probaway posts on unknowns and unknown unknowns, with the effort being to isolate the factors that might be helpful in discovering knowable things within the presently unknown areas. This is a meta science, an overview of a search strategy. The idea of shadowing volumes as a way of revealing unknown things within their umbras may be useful. It consists of blocking the brilliance of sources so the more delicate things may be viewed, and then blocking second and third sources covering a given area with their brilliance, and that are creating obscurity because of their brilliant noise. Some unobserved things may simply be too small to reflect much illumination or cast a shadow, or not big enough to cast a shadow or too transparent to be seen or cast a shadow. These unobserved objects might be tiny or very big, but too diffuse in the ordinary glare of various typical illuminators to be seen. All the same they may exist, and may have interesting or perhaps useful properties. Perhaps the usefulness of this technique would be in discovering places where there isn’t anything, in case the absence of something is valuable. This is a kind of Karl Popper-like search for the negative of tested observations, in that it is using falsifiability as the starting point, as opposed to using it as an ending point proof of the not quite rightness of a theory.

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