Covid Log Chart, April 15, 2021 + Now it’s a disaster in progress

It hasn’t happened on the media yet, but within a couple of weeks it will be obvious to everyone. The Covid pandemic is now going to get ugly! India, with a population of almost one and a half billion, has now begun exploding with the Covid variants. It has many densely populated areas where few people have been vaccinated against Covid. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to get vaccinated in the next couple of months because the vaccines are not yet available in such huge numbers. If this Covid surge had been delayed for a few months, there would have been vaccines available because the techniques are available, but they are not here now because it takes time to make the vaccines.

The orange line representing India has a sharp upswing this last week, which may not look like much on this logarithmic graph, but the numbers of people involved near the top of this logarithmic chart are enormous. The steepness of the line with such a large population is what is staggering, and spells the incipient death curve for India starting to point up in next week’s chart, and looking really grim in a month. Their orange-colored death curve has been nearly flat for five months, so complacency seemed reasonable. I hope I am wrong about this projection, because I think my nearly free nasal flush with highly dilute baby shampoo would prevent much of this suffering, but even my friends laugh at me when I try to discuss it with them.

Americans at present have access to effective Covid vaccines, but it takes a month for them to become maximally effective. Unfortunately, millions of Americans believe it is their right to think for themselves and refuse to obey suggestions from pandemic authorities. Unfortunately for them, it isn’t the authorities who are doing the infecting of human bodies it is the Covid disease, and the virus looks on human flesh as a luscious dinner.

Get vaccinated now or suffer!

Covid Log Chart, April 6, 2021 + the future

The slightly good thing is the curve for total cases as displayed in BLUE at the top of the chart is flattening out. It must be perfectly flat before the Covid pandemic is over, and that will take a while. But, with the vaccines now being manufactured in quantity by several independent companies, the disease will eventually be brought under control. Even the new variations will probably be controlled because the science that created the vaccines can easily be modified to get the variations. Also, those techniques can dig even deeper into the virus and gain even greater control over its behavior.

Just below the BLUE line is a purple one representing the United States. Our country was badly hit by Covid because all of the suggestions above were actively suppressed by our former government rather than encouraged. But now with a new administration taking maximum possible speed in the recommended actions, the curve has been flattening for two months. We are hoping that by July 4th, our national independence celebration, the Covid vaccines will have made it safe for vaccinated people to have big celebrations.

In the meantime, at least for a couple more months, wear a mask when out in public, avoid crowds, and avoid touching things like door knobs that the public touches. And, if you must touch these things, clean your hands and nose as often as you are exposed. I have been recommending creating a very mild solution for washing your nostrils. One drop of baby shampoo in a cup of pre-boiled water put into a small one-ounce bottle will be enough for a week. Just pour a small puddle into your hand and sniff it, hold for a second or more, and then blow it out. That’s probably good for an hour, even if you are out in public and not wearing a mask.

Unfortunately, there appears to be a surge of new cases developing in young adults. These will probably not result in massive deaths, but it will probably lead to long term degradation of those victims’ lives. It is easy to avoid, just get the vaccination.

January 2021 Covid Log Chart with an absurd projection of 20 million deaths in one year.

The best option at the moment is to purchase some of the much better face masks, like the 3M 9205 + N95, and wear them routinely for the next year. Also, you can get antisocial and totally avoid people for a year.  Another option is to have your food and other necessities delivered to your residence. You might consider washing your nose with dilute baby shampoo which I have discussed elsewhere on my blog. Of course, you can totally ignore all precautions, have a good time drinking, partying, and praying, and let your good luck pull you through.

The vaccines are here for old people like me, and I’ve had my first jab. The media doctors say that if a person shows symptoms of having caught Covid two weeks after the first shot, that the chance of a severe case or death is near zero. After the second shot the risk of catching Covid is about five percent if exposed, but hopefully the seriousness of illness would be mild, at least until the resistance wears off, which may take a year. By that time we will probably be getting an annual vaccination, possibly mixed with the flu shot.

Dr. Fauci says in his very polite way that the next few months will probably be the worst. Therefore, be really careful until July 4th, but even then wear a N95 mask in public.

January 2021 Covid Log Chart with absurd projection of 20 million deaths in one year.

A simple straight line is drawn through the black world death line data from June 25, 2020, thru January 25, 2021, and onward in the dotted red line for one year to January 25, 2022, which gives 20 million deaths from Covid. This is an absurd projection because there will be many complicating factors before then, such as vaccines slowing the progression of the Covid disease, and the new more transmissible varieties of the Covid accelerating its spread. Therefore, the number 20 million may be an overshoot and the deaths only half that number, or even less. Of course there is the possibility of the new varieties occurring in greater numbers because there are more people carrying the disease which gives more possibilities for new more deadly varieties to appear. If that happens, there may be many more deaths. 

The best option at the moment is to purchase some of the much better face masks, like the 3M 9205 + N95, and wear them routinely for the next year. Also, you can get antisocial and totally avoid people for a year.  Another option is to have your food and other necessities delivered to your residence. You might consider washing your nose with dilute baby shampoo which I have discussed elsewhere on my blog. Of course, you can totally ignore all precautions, have a good time drinking, partying, and praying, and let your good luck pull you through.

2020 Covid logarithmic chart for Earth & big 7 countries

The whole World logarithmic Covid Pandemic slope continues its eight-month-long steady climb. In the beginning, it was stoppable with drastic shutdown measures. But now that it is worldwide that is impossible except in naturally isolated places like islands where entry of people can be controlled.

Measures like wearing masks will slow the spread, but that procedure won’t kill all of the viruses after it has spread worldwide. The vaccines will bring the Covid under control, and lessen the severity, but probably it will be with us for a very long time, like the common cold. In that situation, the best defense will probably be vaccinations every year, but that brings up so much resistance, that there will remain pockets of infected people, for a very long time.

Right now your best protection is to wear a high-quality face mask like the 3M Aura 9205. I wore one of these on a two-hour round trip up a 500-foot butte a few days ago, and it performed the best of any of the dozen of other masks I’ve tried, including the ones I made or modified. 

I still believe that baby shampoo diluted to one drop per cupful of pre-boiled water and sniffing a small capful gently into the nose will kill the Covid virus if left to dry into a film of soap. Soap is great for disabling the virus’s attachment ability, and baby soap doesn’t sting the nose when sniffed.

For a couple more months we must wear masks in public and avoid people as much as possible.

Covid logarithmic chart with one-month projections for the World

Once again all the logarithmic lines are nearly straight and steeply sloped upward. That is a disaster for any country listed here, and the steeper the slope the worse the past has been, and the steeper the dashed line projected one month forward from the actual last month’s data slope the worse it will be, because these are logarithmic slopes. The World cases, which today are over eighty million, are projected to be about one-hundred-ten million by the end of January. The vaccines are already being deployed as fast as they are being made, but it will take until the end of summer before they will be available to everyone who wants one.

Until someone has had the disease or the vaccination they will be at great risk of eventually catching the Covid, but the after-effects are much worse for those who have had the disease. There appears to be a high percentage of people who recover from cases of the Covid, even young people with mild cases, who develop serious long-term health problems.

The message for the next six months is to avoid people as much as possible, to wear a good quality face mask as much as possible, and to get a vaccination as soon as possible. And I, and no one else that I know of, recommends rinsing the nose several times per day with 10 drops of a solution made by adding 1 drop of baby shampoo per cupful of boiled water after it has cooled to room temperature. Sniff it gently into the nose over a sink. Let it drip out and then snort in the little bit in the nose into the sinus.

Covid logarithmic chart with one-month projections for the World

The curves for the World cases and deaths are remarkably straight, which on a logarithmic chart means they are growing exponentially. There are now ten times more total Covid cases than there were half a year ago in mid-June. If that growth rate continues through the winter months, which is likely when people spend more time indoors, ten times more would be over seven hundred million cases. The vaccines to prevent that great number of infections would have had to have been given to those exact ten percent of the people on Earth. The vaccine will slow the spread, but it will not stop it until everyone is vaccinated, and that will probably take over a year. Five years from now there will be three kinds of people: (1) those who have taken the vaccine and are relatively immune to Covid, (2) those who have survived the disease, (3) and a smaller group of those who didn’t get immunized either way and are still at risk.

To the best of my knowledge, those older people who catch the Covid are at greater risk of dying, but the younger population is at risk of long-term disabilities. I, of course, am considered to be on the lunatic fringe because I have modest proof that one drop of baby shampoo diluted in a cup of water will make a mild and effective solution for killing the Covid viruses in the nose when about ten drops of the solution are sniffed into the nose.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World. Plus a USA excess deaths chart

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The top chart above shows the Covid disaster past, present, and a dotted straight line forecast for the next month. The chart includes total world population with Covid at the top in a thick blue line, and a world death curve in black. The largest five countries, my state Oregon, and my county Deschutes are also shown, and for comparison, the 2014 Ebola epidemic is shown. Some strange things become obvious …

1. The state of Oregon’s deaths from Covid may soon pass the most populous country in the world in total Covid deaths. China’s population is 1,405,529,480 compared to Oregon’s population of 4,301,090, meaning there are 327 times as many Chinese as Oregonians. And China’s deaths are 4,634 with very few new ones, while Oregon’s deaths are 1,003 and rising fast and may surpass China’s within a few months.

2. The thick black line for World deaths has been remarkably straight for seven months, and because of the coming winter season with more people staying indoors, there will be an increase of transmissions, cases, and deaths. But this is a logarithmic chart, so crossing a horizontal line means ten times increase in magnitude.

3. Vaccines are now becoming available, but it may take a full year before everyone can have a vaccine available to be vaccinated with, and some people will refuse even if it is available, so the disease will be lurking around for years.

4. Nearly all countries have an ongoing struggle with the Covid pandemic, except for China which has it under very tight controls. Their controls are strict and the people are willing to comply, but in America and the European Union, strict controls are considered a violation of personal freedom and are not obeyed.

5. In China, these disobedient people would probably be imprisoned. The economic result of this policy is that China, which was already growing rapidly, will surge ahead and soon surpass the US as the number one economic powerhouse of the world. Pyt.

The blue bottom chart created by the US CDC, Weekly number of deaths (all cases) has a gold-colored line just above the blue columns. It is a predicted normal number of deaths to be expected for that month plus a threshold value for instituting emergency operations. In a normal year there would be a white gap under the gold line, but starting in April the blue columns rose past the gold line indicating a serious problem. In February of 2018 the flu season drove the death rate above the gold line, but in April 2020 it shot above the gold line with the first wave of Covid. We are presently experiencing a new and probably bigger wave which will show better on this chart a month from now after the data is reported. Click the link above to have live control over these data columns as pictured as a still for November 7, 2020, in the chart above.

We need to get serious about wearing our masks until spring, and I have designed a much better functioning mask you can make in a few minutes, that doesn’t stick to your face, and breathes much better, and is much more comfortable to wear. Also, I recommend washing your nose a few times per day with a small amount of a solution made of baby shampoo diluted to one drop per cup full of previously boiled water. That boiling gets the chlorine out which is what makes tap water painful in your nose.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World. Nov 25, 2020

Covid pandemic – Nov 25, 2020 logarithmic graph showing the world, and the largest seven countries. Also, the state of Oregon, and Deschutes county in Oregon, where I live.

Comments

The American authorities have been so undermined by a President who refused to comply with his scientific advisors and promote life-saving behavior of his citizens. The USA now has 4% of its total population of 332 million having been infected with Covid, leaving 96% of its people largely exposed to the disease. With the tradition of going home to family events on Thanksgiving Day, and traveling many miles to spend intimate hours with people far and wide, it will become a superspreader event, and Christmas will see a huge number of new cases. The vaccines are promising to be effective, but they won’t be available to everyone until the Covid eases up a little in the summer. With a President who encouraged safer behavior by everyone, the total disruption to society here in the US and worldwide would have been much less.

I promoted washing the face and nostrils and letting them air dry so a coating of baby shampoo would cover those places where the disease first enters the body, and kill it. I have been doing this myself, and hopefully it will be enough to make it through to when the vaccine becomes available.

Covid logarithmic chart with projections for the World. Nov 20, 2020

I added a year of chart to the existing one-year COVID pandemic chart. This chart graphs the whole world cases in a heavy dark blue line that is on the left side and is numbered each month with the total cases. A heavy black line is below it which graphs the total world deaths. There are seven colored lines graphing the largest countries, although there have been smaller countries with a higher number of cases and deaths. I have added the state of Oregon and the Oregon county of Deschutes because that is where I have lived for the last ten years, and the only impact I have on the world is locally, even though I have been promoting a baby wash solution for cleaning the nostrils of Covid virus for months. It is on this post which has links to YouTube videos of me showing how to create and use what I believe is an effective Covid killer. A friend, Alan, sent me a link to some people who are now hoping to sell a nasal spray that will probably do what I have been doing to myself for six months. The problem is that the vaccines that are just now beginning to be distributed to special people will not cover the people of the earth for over a year. Therefore, there will be millions of needless deaths unless a quicker solution is found, like washing the nose with baby shampoo.