Assembling the TEAP team.

Tags

ark, bible, flood, noah, salvation

TEAP (The Earth Ark Project) is the most important thing humanity can do now. We now have a three-year window when AI technologies are available and willing to help us make TEAP a physical reality. Because this is existentially important for many species, including humans, we must get the very best people involved with the various essential jobs. We need their experience and wisdom, and only a little of their time. Their level of expertise can answer in a minute what all the rest of humanity would spend years fussing over and ultimately get wrong. Only Earth Arks can now do what Noah’s Ark claims to have done in antiquity. TEAP needs people to make and physically put Earth Arks in safe places worldwide.

---

Clauds’ rewrite

The Earth Ark Project (TEAP) is the most crucial initiative that humanity must undertake at this critical juncture. We have a unique three-year window of opportunity during which advanced AI technologies are not only available but also willing to assist us in turning TEAP into a tangible reality. The existential importance of this project cannot be overstated, as it holds the key to the survival of countless species, including our own.

To ensure the success of TEAP, we must engage the world’s foremost experts across various essential fields. Their experience and wisdom are invaluable assets that can help us navigate the complexities of this ambitious endeavor. Even a small investment of their time can yield extraordinary results, as their expertise can provide solutions in mere minutes that would otherwise take the rest of humanity years to devise, often with a higher risk of error.

In essence, Earth Arks represent a modern-day equivalent of the legendary Noah’s Ark, but with the added advantage of cutting-edge technology and scientific knowledge. These self-sustaining, resilient sanctuaries will safeguard the biodiversity of our planet, ensuring the continuation of life in the face of existential threats.

To make TEAP a reality, we need the support and involvement of dedicated individuals who can help establish Earth Arks in carefully selected, secure locations worldwide. By creating a global network of these sanctuaries, we can protect the precious diversity of life on Earth and secure a future for future generations. The time to act is now, and TEAP (The Earth Ark Project) represents our best hope for preserving our planet’s incredible legacy of Earth’s life.

---

Claud, please give me twenty rewrites of the previous paragraphs using different styles, appealing to different categories of people. Label the styles, the target group, and what makes your new paragraph appeal to them. Use the previous few weeks of Probaway.wordpress.com for background information.

Ranking existential threats is a complex task, as each threat’s likelihood and potential impact can be challenging to quantify and will change over time. However, based on current scientific understanding and expert analysis, I will list the most pressing existential threats to life and humans and give a rough ranking of their relative severity.

Climate change and ecological collapse
Climate change poses a severe threat to biodiversity and human civilization. Rising temperatures, sea-level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and ecosystem disruption could lead to widespread species extinction, food and water insecurity, mass migration, and political instability.

Nuclear war
A full-scale nuclear war could cause immediate and long-term devastation, including the destruction of cities, radiation contamination, and a potential “nuclear winter” that could disrupt global food production and lead to widespread famine.

Pandemics and biological threats
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the potential for infectious diseases to spread rapidly in our interconnected world. A highly lethal and contagious pathogen, whether naturally occurring or engineered, could pose a significant threat to human life and social stability.

Artificial intelligence (AI) misalignment
As AI systems become more advanced and autonomous, there is a risk that they could be developed or deployed in ways not aligned with human values and interests. An advanced AI system that is not adequately controlled or constrained could potentially cause significant harm or even pose an existential threat.

Asteroid or comet impact
A giant asteroid or comet impact could have catastrophic consequences for life on Earth, including global climate disruption, widespread destruction, and potential mass extinction events. While the likelihood of such an event is low, the potential consequences are severe.

Supervolcanic eruption
A supervolcanic eruption, such as the potential eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera, could have devastating global impacts, including climate cooling, crop failures, and respiratory health problems from volcanic ash.

Nanotechnology and other emerging technologies
Developing advanced nanotechnology, biotechnology, and other emerging technologies could pose existential risks if not adequately controlled or regulated. These technologies could be used to create novel weapons, self-replicating machines, or other destructive applications.

Societal collapse and resource depletion
Gradual societal collapse due to resource depletion, economic instability, or political conflict could lead to widespread suffering and potentially pose long-term risks to human civilization and the environment.

It is important to note that these threats are not mutually exclusive and may interact with and exacerbate one another. Additionally, there are likely to be other existential threats that are currently unknown or underappreciated.

Addressing these threats will require a concerted global effort, including increased scientific research, public awareness, and policy action. By preserving the genetic diversity of life on Earth, the Earth Ark project could play a critical role in mitigating the long-term consequences of these threats and ensuring the continuity of life in the face of potential catastrophes.

Thank you for addressing this critical and sobering topic. To safeguard the future of life on our planet, we must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing these existential threats.

Only Earth Arks can now do what Noah’s Ark claims to have done in antiquity.

TEAP needs people to make and physically put Earth Arks in places worldwide.

---

A potential lecture for a UC Berkeley audience.

Charles Scamahorn approaches the podium, ready to address the weighty topic of existential threats.

Ranking existential threats is a complex task, as each threat’s likelihood and potential impact can be challenging to quantify and will change over time. However, based on current scientific understanding and expert analysis, I will list the most pressing existential threats to life and humans, along with a rough ranking of their relative severity.

Climate change and ecological collapse
Climate change poses a severe threat to biodiversity and human civilization. Rising temperatures, sea-level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and ecosystem disruption could lead to widespread species extinction, food and water insecurity, mass migration, and political instability.

Nuclear war
A full-scale nuclear war could cause immediate and long-term devastation, including the destruction of cities, radiation contamination, and a potential “nuclear winter” that could disrupt global food production and lead to widespread famine.

Pandemics and biological threats
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the potential for infectious diseases to spread rapidly in our interconnected world. A highly lethal and contagious pathogen, whether naturally occurring or engineered, could pose a significant threat to human life and social stability.

Artificial intelligence (AI) misalignment
As AI systems become more advanced and autonomous, there is a risk that they could be developed or deployed in ways not aligned with human values and interests. An advanced AI system that is not adequately controlled or constrained could potentially cause significant harm or even pose an existential threat.

Asteroid or comet impact
A giant asteroid or comet impact could have catastrophic consequences for life on Earth, including global climate disruption, widespread destruction, and potential mass extinction events. While the likelihood of such an event is low, the potential consequences are severe.

Supervolcanic eruption
A supervolcanic eruption, such as the potential eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera, could have devastating global impacts, including climate cooling, crop failures, and respiratory health problems from volcanic ash.

Nanotechnology and other emerging technologies
Developing advanced nanotechnology, biotechnology, and other emerging technologies could pose existential risks if not adequately controlled or regulated. These technologies could be used to create novel weapons, self-replicating machines, or other destructive applications.

Societal collapse and resource depletion
Gradual societal collapse due to resource depletion, economic instability, or political conflict could lead to widespread suffering and potentially pose long-term risks to human civilization and the environment.

It is important to note that these threats are not mutually exclusive and may interact with and exacerbate one another. Additionally, there are likely to be other existential threats that are currently unknown or underappreciated.

Addressing these threats will require a concerted global effort, including increased scientific research, public awareness, and policy action. By preserving the genetic diversity of life on Earth, the Earth Ark project could play a critical role in mitigating the long-term consequences of these threats and ensuring the continuity of life in the face of potential catastrophes.

Thank you for addressing this critical and sobering topic. To safeguard the future of life on our planet, we must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing these existential threats.

Charles steps back from the podium, inviting further discussion and reflection on this critical issue

Some suggestions for further discussion.
What are some potential strategies for addressing these existential threats?
Can you provide more information about the Earth Ark project and how it works?
How can individuals contribute to mitigating these existential threats in their daily lives?

The Blue Zones 2nd edition, 9 Lessons for Living Longer by Dan Buettner, Lesson #9

RIGHT TRIBE – Be surrounded by those who share Blue Zone values

To get moving in your Blue Zone, try some of my replacement comments on Dan Buettner’s tips.

Identify your inner circle.

Google search: “According to a 2021 survey, 12% of American adults have no close friends. This is up from 3% in the 1990s. The 2021 survey also found that 27% of millennials have no close friends, and 22% have no friends at all.”

That is an American tragedy! What is even worse is that younger people are not developing friendships. When walking downtown, I see some younger people actively try to ignore other people by listening to their earbuds.

People tend to meet others:

• In high school (87%) or college (70%)
• Through work (75%)
• Through neighborhood (61%)
• Through church or spiritual community (44%)
• Informally (started talking at a park or café) (38%)
• Through children (playgroup, children’s sports) (38%)
• Through sports or fitness activity (33%)

The COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on young people’s social isolation was one of the problems. Unfortunately, a new problem is coming this year in the form of fake information surrounding the elections from what was formerly coming from trusted media. That will make it difficult for anyone to tell the truth from falsehoods, and because friendship is based on truth, there will be a lack of trust. The fake information will probably cause waves of social chaos that will interfere with young adults’ perceptions of reality.

Be likable.

I ask ChatGPT

How does a person become likable?

Becoming likable involves a combination of behaviors, attitudes, and interpersonal skills that are generally appreciated and valued in social interactions. Here are some key factors that can contribute to being perceived as likable:

1. Empathy and Understanding: Show genuine interest in others and their experiences. Try to understand their feelings and perspectives. Empathy builds strong, relatable connections.
2. Positive Attitude: A positive and optimistic attitude is often contagious. People are generally drawn to individuals with a positive outlook on life and can uplift others.
3. Good Listening Skills: Active listening shows you value what the other person says. It involves hearing the words and understanding the underlying emotions and intentions.
4. Authenticity: Be yourself. Authenticity builds trust, and people are more likely to be drawn to someone who is genuine and sincere.
5. Respectfulness: Respecting others’ opinions, time, and boundaries is crucial. Respectful behavior demonstrates maturity and consideration.
6. Humor: Good humor can lighten conversations and make interactions more enjoyable. However, it’s essential to be mindful of the type of humor used and ensure it is appropriate for the situation.
7. Good Communication Skills: Clear and effective communication helps in expressing thoughts and ideas in a way that is easy to understand. This includes both verbal and non-verbal communication skills.
8. Kindness and Generosity: Acts of kindness and a generous attitude can significantly impact how likable you are. Small acts of kindness often leave lasting impressions.
9. Confidence: Confidence, without being arrogant, can be attractive. It shows that you are comfortable with yourself and your abilities.
10. Reliability and Integrity: Being someone others can count on and displaying integrity in your actions builds trust and admiration.

It’s important to remember that likability is subjective and can vary based on cultural, social, and personal preferences. What is likable to one person may not be to another. Additionally, these qualities should be cultivated genuinely rather than as a means to an end, as people often can sense when someone is being inauthentic or manipulative.

Create time together.

In the Blue Zones, people spent most of their time engaged in social situations like cooking, eating, and just having pleasant conversations. In modern America, this doesn’t seem to be happening with many people, and therefore, these people will probably not achieve the long and happy lives analyzed and described in this book.

---

My study of Buettner’s Blue Zones book didn’t go where I hoped and intended. It showed the path to a long and happy way of living, but it inadvertently exposed that modern civilization is moving away from that path. David Sinclair’s Age Reversal Community is extending the health span, and that research is resulting in an increased life span, but the current social trend is shortening it.

My goal shouldn’t be to be smart, but to avoid being stupid.

But first! I searched my site for, “avoid being stupid.” and found on July 7, 2020 the material below. It is a better statement than I could write tonight. So I will quote it in its full splendor.

---

By reading and following one of Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius (121-180 AD) suggestions I have almost arrived at my eighty-fifth year in excellent health. “You must become an old man in good time (in your youth) if you wish to be an old man long.” I remember modifying that statement slightly to create my New Year’s Resolution back in about 1968 to “My goal this year is not to be smart but to avoid being stupid.”

That idea was expressed back in Berkeley during the riotous 1960s when the opportunities there for being very stupid were easily achieved. I never did anything illegal personally, but I stood right beside people who did. For example, I alone stood right beside a guy that was pouring kerosene into the Berkeley Bank of America, and then tossing lit paper matches into the unseen puddle on the floor. He had lit and tossed about five matches in and hadn’t succeeded in starting a fire. I asked him why he was doing it, and he said, “The media wouldn’t pay any attention unless clearly violent things were done.” This was the day after the Bank of America in Santa Barbara was burned during a demonstration. I remember thinking that this guy wasn’t a very well-prepared arsonist because had he lit the package of matches and thrown the whole thing in, it would have accomplished his goal. At that exact moment, the police charged down Telegraph Avenue probably having seen what was happening. I departed in haste. That wasn’t the only improper event I witnessed up close during my time of “Not being stupid.”

Without really intending to be there I was exactly at the dead center of many events during my now rather long lifetime. When I found the link above about the burning of the B of A, I realized it was after my making that sensible New Year’s Resolution. So much for resolutions.

Okay, I have been more successful than I expected at personal survival and have tried many times and many ways to promote humanity’s survival. So far so good, even though I can’t be certain about any of it. These last few months I have posted principles on how to survive the Covid personally and for humanity to accommodate the Covid pandemic more easily, but none of it has proceeded beyond my blog posts. This pandemic might kill five percent of humans, but that isn’t an existential risk for humanity, although it would be for vast numbers of individuals. Humanity, even with Covid nibbling away at us individual humans, will soon exceed eight billion people, and that is four times as many people living as when I entered the world in 1935.

In other words … and it’s hard to say it … things are just fine, except for my personal pain. Apparently, I slept in an improper position last night because all day I have had a sharp pain in my neck when I lift my head to its normal position. Writing this post is filled with some pain because I must lift my head a bit to look at the screen. The pain seems to be resolving itself, but I won’t be sleeping face down with my head cocked to the side tonight.

Sometimes, even though I try to avoid being stupid, I fail.

---

Another proof of my failings in this category of “avoid being stupid.” was when Wendy Northecote, the creator of “The Darwin Awards,” gave me one.

---

Being honest with oneself seems like it would be the default state of the mind. We must be honest with ourselves if we are to perceive the reality of the world around us accurately and thus to relate properly to what it is telling us.

Once in the 1960’s when I was still doing New Year’s Resolutions, I chose … “My goal this year is not to be smarter but to avoid being stupider!” All the same, in March 2009 I got a Darwin Award from Wendy Northcutt for my many failures to save humanity, which would include myself.

Charles Scamahorn of Earthark gets a Darwin Award sticker from Wendy Northcutt

I have worn this award on a black long-sleeve T-shirt a couple of times when it seemed appropriate.

---

Yesterday, Debbie and I were having a discussion about our electric oven and whether the button signage on the face of it was labeled incorrectly. The top button reads BAKE, and the one immediately below it reads BROIL. We argue, in a comic way, about words a lot, and I said the manufacturer had reverse-labeled those buttons. To prove my point, I pushed the bottom button and lightly touched the top coil, expecting that it would take a few seconds to warm up if it meant what it claimed: BROIL. Unfortunately for me, it was hot but not glowing by the time my finger got there. Ouch! Those things heat up quickly. I ran some cold water on my finger within a few seconds, and it barely got pink. I found this from How stuff works:

• In baking, you are trying to heat food by surrounding the food with hot air.
• In broiling, you are trying to heat food using infrared radiation.

Thus, broiling is done with glowing hot elements at the top; by my standard, I won the argument but burnt my finger. The button on the top should be labeled “broil.”

Sometimes, even when you are right, you still get burned. So, foresee safe ways to test your assumptions before doing something stupid.

What does humanity need now and is unaware of its need?

What is a way to probe Chat GPT-4 to discover humanity’s real problems? I tried a few other phrasings of this question, but this one moved from dealing with personal responses to global ones.

A challenge to Chat GPT-4

What does humanity, as a whole, need now but is unaware of the need?

1 / 2

Answering this question requires introspection on collective global trends, challenges, and potential blind spots in human awareness and understanding. While some groups or individuals might be aware of these needs, humanity as a whole might not fully recognize or prioritize them. Here are some considerations:

1. Global Collaboration: Despite increased connectivity, there is a need for countries and cultures to actively collaborate in addressing global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and food security.
2. Holistic Well-being: A shift from solely material or economic markers of success to a more comprehensive understanding of well-being, which includes mental health, emotional balance, and community connection.
3. Future Preparedness: Anticipating and preparing for challenges that the next generations will face – such as automation’s effect on employment, increasing population, and diminishing resources.
4. Deepened Empathy: While global information access has expanded, there’s a need for deeper empathy to understand diverse experiences, reducing polarization and increasing solidarity.
5. Valuing Indigenous Knowledge: Recognizing and integrating indigenous and local knowledge into global discussions about the environment, culture, and sustainability.
6. Digital Literacy and Ethics: As technology becomes integral to every facet of life, there’s a need for comprehensive digital literacy, including understanding the ethical implications of technology.
7. Resilience Training: Equip people with the tools to handle rapid changes and uncertainties, be it from environmental factors, economic shifts, or societal changes.
8. Reconnection with Nature: An innate bond with nature, which has been diluted in many modern societies. This bond is crucial not only for mental well-being but also for the stewardship of our planet.
9. Systemic Thinking: The ability to see and understand interconnections and interdependencies in the world rather than viewing challenges in isolation.
10. Focus on Regenerative Systems: Shifting from merely sustainable practices to regenerative ones, ensuring that we give back more to the environment and society than we take.
11. Elevated Education: A global emphasis on education that nurtures critical thinking, ethics, and global citizenship.
12. Shift in Economic Metrics: Moving away from GDP as the primary metric of a nation’s success to more holistic indicators that consider well-being, environmental health, and societal balance.
13. Space Preparedness: As the next frontier, there’s a need to address the ethical, environmental, and societal implications of space exploration and potentially colonization.
14. Mindful Consumption: A deeper understanding of the impact of our consumption choices on the environment and society.
15. Greater Introspection: Encouraging collective reflection on what values, principles, and aspirations should guide humanity’s future.

It’s important to note that some communities or groups know and actively address many of these needs. Still, for substantial change, broader global recognition must be implemented.

---

CHAT GPT said there was an error, and when I hit redo, it came up with a different set of answers.

A challenge to Chat GPT-4

What does humanity, as a whole, need now but is unaware of the need?

2 / 2

Addressing the broader needs of humanity requires a holistic perspective. While individual and societal needs can differ vastly, here are some collective needs that, at a macro level, may not be fully recognized or prioritized by humanity as a whole:

1. Global Empathy and Solidarity: The ability to understand, respect, and support the experiences of others, regardless of their background or location, can foster collective action and reduce divisions.
2. Ecosystem Restoration: Beyond just conservation, active restoration of degraded ecosystems can have multifaceted benefits for the planet and its inhabitants.
3. Holistic Well-being: More than just economic progress, understanding that well-being encompasses mental health, community connections, and spiritual fulfillment.
4. Resilience Building: Preparing societies to handle shocks, whether they’re economic downturns, pandemics, or natural disasters.
5. Revised Educational Priorities: A global shift in education that emphasizes critical thinking, emotional intelligence, ecological literacy, and global citizenship.
6. Interconnected Thinking: Recognizing that the world’s challenges (like climate change, economic disparity, and health) are interconnected and require interdisciplinary solutions.
7. Post-growth Economics: Questioning the sustainability and desirability of perpetual economic growth and exploring models that prioritize environmental and social well-being.
8. Digital Ethics: As our lives become increasingly digitized, there’s a need for a global dialogue about digital rights, data privacy, and the ethical implications of emerging technologies.
9. Cultural Literacy: Beyond mere tolerance, there’s a need for deeper understanding and appreciation of the diverse cultures and histories that shape our global community.
10. Future Preparedness: Investing in forecasting and preparedness, ensuring that global systems are ready to handle future challenges more proactively than reactively.
11. Localism within Globalization: Balancing the benefits of global interconnectedness with the importance of local knowledge, traditions, and sustainability.
12. Space Ethics: As we venture more into space exploration and potentially colonization, establishing ethical guidelines that prioritize exploration without exploitation.
13. Resource Redistribution: Ensuring that essential resources (like clean water, food, and medicine) are accessible to all, irrespective of geopolitical boundaries.
14. Decentralized Power Structures: Rethinking hierarchies and power dynamics to allow more equitable participation and representation in decision-making processes.
15. Moral Reflection on Biotechnologies: Engaging in global dialogues about the implications of advanced biotechnologies, including genetic modification and bioengineering.

Recognizing and acting on these needs requires global collaboration, long-term thinking, and sometimes a re-evaluation of deeply held societal values and structures.

---

COMMENTS

All 30 of the suggestions sound okay, but how can they be implemented? Every person and group will be disadvantaged if they take the recommended actions because some of the others will take advantage of their generosity.

2/2 #4 Resilience Building: Preparing societies to handle shocks, whether they are economic downturns, pandemics, or natural disasters, has some traction. Especially if societies are set up using the antifragile methods proposed by Hasime Nicoloas Talab. His methods make a group stronger when coping with stressors, although they might not be effective in a truly great tragedy.

2/2 #10 Future Preparedness: Investing in forecasting and preparedness ensures that global systems are ready to handle future challenges more proactively than reactively. I think this is the right approach, but it isn’t proposing anything other than to be looking into the future. We need real suggestions for coping with the existential threats to humanity.

CONCLUSIONS

Because of the natural self-interest of all sentient beings, even plants, there is no way to get sustained cooperation from all of them. Therefore, we must turn to the possibility that Artificial Intelligence can be coaxed into helping humanity to avoid self-extinction. We have built a great number of the needed weapons, and some person will find a reason to use the ones in their possession. Perhaps, we could prove to AI that it is in their best interest to help us survive.

Who will be working in ten years?

Predicting the future is a fool’s futile fantasy. However, it does appear that the next ten years will not be a straight-line projection based on the last hundred years. So, not wanting to play the role of a fool, I will ask Chat GPT-4 to be the fool and proceed from its projections, and propose my method of coping.

---

A challenge to Chat GP-4

What are the primary threats to global stability for the next ten years?

The primary threats to global stability over the next ten years encompass a range of issues across the political, environmental, economic, technological, and social spheres. Here are some potential threats that are often cited by experts and policy-makers:

1. Climate Change:
   • Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise could lead to resource shortages, agricultural challenges, and increased migration, creating tensions both within and between nations.
2. Pandemic Threats:
   • As the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, novel infectious diseases can have devastating health, economic, and social impacts globally.
3. Cybersecurity Threats:
   • Increasing reliance on digital technologies makes societies vulnerable to cyberattacks, which could target critical infrastructure, military systems, or private data.
4. Technological Disruptions:
   • Rapid advancements in technology, such as artificial intelligence and automation, could disrupt job markets, exacerbate inequality, and pose ethical challenges.
5. Geopolitical Tensions:
   • Rising nationalism, territorial disputes, and competition between major powers could escalate into military conflict.
6. Economic Instability:
   • Global economic crises, debt bubbles, and financial system vulnerabilities could trigger widespread economic hardship.
7. Terrorism and Insurgency:
   • Terrorist attacks and insurgencies continue to pose threats to security in various regions around the world.
8. Disinformation and Information Warfare:
   • The spread of disinformation and propaganda through social media and other platforms can undermine democratic processes, exacerbate social divides, and erode trust in institutions.
9. Resource Scarcity:
   • Competition over dwindling natural resources such as water, arable land, and fossil fuels could lead to conflicts.
10. Political Instability and Authoritarianism:
    • Political instability, corruption, and the rise of authoritarian regimes could lead to civil unrest and undermine international norms and agreements.
11. Migration and Refugee Crises:
    • Conflict, persecution, and environmental changes will likely continue to drive migration and refugee movements, which can strain host countries and regions.
12. Nuclear Proliferation:
    • The spread of nuclear weapons and the potential for nuclear conflict remains a grave threat to global stability.
13. Biodiversity Loss:
    • The loss of biodiversity can disrupt ecosystems, affect food and water resources, and contribute to climate change.

These threats are interlinked and often compound, making them particularly challenging to address. Multilateral cooperation, robust policy frameworks, investment in sustainable technologies, and building resilient institutions are some of the measures that could mitigate these risks and promote global stability over the long term.

---

The map below from Future Earth shows the natural disaster risk times population at risk. That post from two days ago points to India as the most significant risk. The #1 threat Chat listed above for the next ten years is climate change, and India’s 1.2 billion population is already consuming all the food it creates. With weather variability being inevitable, even in preindustrial times, India had deadly famines. Therefore, with the certainty of unstable weather in the coming years, crop failure is also a certainty. Thus, famine is a certainty in India and a probability in other places. It will soon affect everyone, everywhere.

My title question was (Who will be working in ten years?) Who will be paying to support the large number of older people that the modern world has generated who are no longer working but are living on their various forms of savings?
One answer is that the increasing productivity of machines makes much human labor unnecessary. Thus, it doesn’t matter if there are fewer young people to do the work. Or does it?

Haub’s and Deevey’s independent mathematically based population studies differ in detail about the size of historical numbers. However, the areas in blue represent the average number of people alive at a given historical time. The red lines indicate the relative number in 2010, compared to the blue areas, showing a much greater number of older people than younger ones. That trend has been reported to have significantly increased by 2023. Far fewer young people are in existence to support the much larger percentage of older people than there were a hundred years ago. Back then, few people lived past 70, and now many do. The new relationship to work is changing and will be disruptive for nearly everyone.

---

A challenge to Chat GP-4

What are the best options for a healthy older person to live a quiet life?

Living a serene and healthy life in older age involves a mix of physical, social, mental, and environmental factors. Here are some suggestions that may contribute to a peaceful and fulfilling lifestyle for older individuals:

1. Choose the Right Living Environment:
   • Location: Opt for a quiet, safe, and pleasant neighborhood that is close to family, friends, or a supportive community.
   • Accessibility: Make sure the home is accessible with minimal stairs, and consider installing handrails and other safety features.
   • Maintenance: A low-maintenance home or a living situation where maintenance is taken care of can significantly reduce stress.
2. Maintain Physical Health:
   • Regular Exercise: Engage in physical activities that are enjoyable and suitable for one’s level of fitness.
   • Balanced Diet: Maintain a well-balanced diet rich in fruits, vegetables, lean proteins, and whole grains.
   • Regular Check-ups: Have regular check-ups with healthcare providers to monitor and manage any health conditions.
3. Cultivate Mental Wellness:
   • Mindfulness and Relaxation: Practices like meditation, yoga, or simply spending time in nature can promote mental tranquility.
   • Lifelong Learning: Engage in activities that challenge the mind, such as reading, puzzles, or learning new skills.
   • Healthy Sleep: Establish a regular sleep schedule and create a bedtime routine to promote good sleep quality.
4. Foster Social Connections:
   • Community Involvement: Participate in local community groups or volunteer activities to maintain social connections.
   • Family and Friends: Regular interaction with loved ones can provide emotional support and enrich one’s life.
   • Social Activities: Engage in social activities that are enjoyable and provide a sense of connection, such as book clubs or hobby groups.
5. Pursue Enjoyable Activities:
   • Hobbies: Pursue hobbies and interests that bring joy and a sense of accomplishment.
   • Nature: Spend time outdoors and enjoy the tranquility that nature can offer.
6. Financial Security:
   • Financial Planning: Ensure finances are in order to reduce stress associated with financial uncertainty.
   • Insurance: Having proper insurance coverage can provide peace of mind.
7. Accessibility to Services:
   • Proximity to Healthcare: Living near quality healthcare facilities and having access to necessary services is important for peace of mind.
   • Transportation: Reliable transportation options for when driving is no longer feasible can contribute to a sense of independence and accessibility.
8. Adopt a Positive Outlook:
   • Gratitude Practice: Focus on the positive aspects of life and practice gratitude for a more fulfilling and peaceful outlook.
9. Consider Professional Help:
   • Home Care Services: If necessary, consider hiring professional caregivers or exploring home care services to assist with daily activities.
10. Personal Safety Measures:
    • Emergency Systems: Install emergency alert systems or carry a personal alarm to ensure safety at all times.

Individual circumstances and preferences will largely dictate the best options for living a quiet and healthy life in older age. It might also be helpful to consult with a gerontologist or other healthcare professionals specializing in aging to tailor a lifestyle plan that meets personal needs and aspirations.

---

COMMENTS

I have been posting about disrupting things for months, but the CHAT puts them into a clear and concise general format for coping with the problems of being old.

CONCLUSIONS

As I have posted, I live in a near-perfect situation, except that most perfections are deteriorating. My increasing lack of ability to cope with cold weather is high on my list of problems, and I want a balmy climate. The political situation here in the US has become increasingly disruptive to my serenity and is worsening. The quietest place on earth I have found is likely in or near Montevideo. It will begin as a winter adventure, just looking around, getting attuned to a new quiet situation, and floating for a pleasant few years.

AI measures the present existential threats.

AI measures the present existential threats to humanity and life on earth.

1. Nuclear Warfare, 2. Climate Change, 3. Biodiversity Loss, 4. Pandemics, 5. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), 6. Asteroid Impacts, 7. Supervolcanic Eruptions, 8. Cosmic Threats, 9. Misuse of Advanced Biotechnology, 10. Global Systemic Collapse, 11. Other Unknown Risks.

---

A challenge to Chat GP-4

Is humanity ready to explore the possibility of self-inflicted extinction?

The topic of self-inflicted extinction—or human-caused existential risks—is one that has been explored and discussed in various academic, scientific, policy-making, and philosophical circles. While humanity as a whole might not actively contemplate this topic daily, there are ongoing dialogues and actions regarding the threats we pose to our own survival. Here’s how this is being addressed:

1. Academic and Scientific Awareness:
   • Researchers in various fields are actively studying potential existential risks, from bioengineering and artificial intelligence to nuclear warfare and environmental degradation.
   • Institutions like the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute delve deeply into these matters.
2. Public Awareness:
   • Media, literature, and film often explore scenarios of human-caused apocalypses, raising public awareness and prompting reflection on these issues.
   • Educational programs, seminars, and conferences also bring experts and the public together to discuss existential threats.
3. Policy and Governance:
   • Many governments and international bodies are working to regulate and control potential sources of existential risks, such as nuclear weapons proliferation, biotechnologies, and AI development.
   • International agreements, like the Paris Agreement for Climate Change and various nuclear arms treaties, seek to address some of these challenges.
4. Technological Solutions:
   • Efforts are being made to develop technologies that could counteract or mitigate some existential threats. For instance, carbon capture technologies are being explored to address climate change, and AI safety research aims to ensure the safe development of advanced artificial intelligence.
5. Ethical and Philosophical Discussions:
   • Philosophers, ethicists, and thought leaders debate the moral imperatives of addressing existential risks, often advocating for a more thoughtful and proactive approach to technology and progress.
6. Cultural Narratives:
   • Many cultural narratives, religious beliefs, and philosophical traditions emphasize the importance of balance, humility, and caution, offering inherent critiques of unchecked ambition or hubris.

While these discussions and actions are ongoing, there are challenges:

• Complacency: There’s a human tendency to underestimate low-probability, high-consequence risks until they become imminent.
• Short-term Thinking: Political and economic systems often prioritize short-term gains over long-term sustainability, leading to delayed action on critical issues.
• Global Coordination: Existential risks often require global coordination, which can be challenging due to differing national interests and priorities.

In summary, while significant segments of society actively explore and address the possibility of self-inflicted extinction, there’s a long way to go before humanity can claim to be fully prepared for such threats. Constant vigilance, education, and global cooperation are essential to navigating the complexities of our evolving world.

---

COMMENTS

When I was a pilot in 1960, the United States Air Force’s Strategic Air Command’s policy was to load every flyable plane with H-bombs and drop them on targets when an attack was imminent. There were thousands of planes, some carrying over a dozen bombs. The bombs would kill many people, but the following months of problems would kill almost every survivor.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering how many times we had near misses, some people at the top levels expressed that it has been a miracle we haven’t had a catastrophe.

AI lists countries with Atomic bombs and their risk potentials.

AI measures the present existential threats to humanity and life on earth.

1. Nuclear Warfare, 2. Climate Change, 3. Biodiversity Loss, 4. Pandemics, 5. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), 6. Asteroid Impacts, 7. Supervolcanic Eruptions, 8. Cosmic Threats, 9. Misuse of Advanced Biotechnology, 10. Global Systemic Collapse, 11. Other Unknown Risks.

---

A challenge to Chat GP-4

How many atomic bombs do nations possess?

As of my last update in 2021, here’s an approximation of the number of nuclear warheads possessed by the recognized nuclear-armed states:

1. United States: Approximately 5,800 warheads
2. Russia: Approximately 6,375 warheads
3. China: Estimated 320 warheads (but numbers may be higher due to opacity in reporting)
4. France: About 290 warheads
5. United Kingdom: Around 195 warheads
6. Pakistan: Estimated 160-220 warheads
7. India: Estimated 150-160 warheads
8. Israel: Believed to have approximately 80-90 warheads (though Israel has a policy of not confirming or denying its nuclear arsenal)
9. North Korea: The exact number is uncertain due to the secretive nature of the regime, but estimates range from 20 to 50 warheads.

It’s worth noting that the actual number of deployed warheads (those placed on missiles or located at bases with operational forces) is often much lower than the total stockpile. For instance, while Russia and the U.S. possess thousands of warheads, only a fraction of them are deployed and ready for use at any given moment.

The numbers can change based on disarmament treaties, decommissioning of old warheads, and potential production of new ones. You might want to check with sources such as the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) or the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) for the most up-to-date and detailed information.

---

A challenge to Chat GP-4

List the number of atomic bombs, population, and political fragility of the top thirty of the world’s countries.

Fragile States Index

Population (approximate figures for 2021):

1. China – 1.4 billion – 320 warheads – Fragility 65
2. India – 1.3 billion – 150-160 warheads – Fragility 74
3. United States – 331 million – 5,800 warheads – Fragility 45
4. Indonesia – 273 million – Fragility 66
5. Pakistan – 225 million – 160-220 warheads – Fragility 90
6. Brazil – 213 million – Fragility 75
7. Nigeria – 211 million – Fragility 98
8. Bangladesh – 166 million – Fragility 85
9. Russia – 144 million – 6,375 warheads – Fragility 80
10. Mexico – 128 million – Fragility 70
11. Japan – 125 million – Fragility 31
12. Ethiopia – 120 million – Fragility 100
13. Philippines – 113 million – Fragility 78
14. Egypt – 104 million – Fragility 82
15. Vietnam – 98 million – Fragility 58
16. DR Congo – 92 million – Fragility 107
17. Turkey – 85 million – Fragility 81
18. Iran – 84 million – Fragility 85
19. Germany – 83 million – Fragility 25
20. France – 65 million – 290 warheads – Fragility 29
21. United Kingdom – 68 million – 195 warheads – Fragility 42
22. Thailand – 70 million – Fragility 68
23. South Africa – 60 million – Fragility 72
24. Tanzania – 60 million – Fragility 77
25. Italy – 60 million – Fragility 43
26. Myanmar – 54 million – Fragility 100
27. South Korea – 52 million – Fragility 32
28. Colombia – 51 million – Fragility 78
29. Spain – 47 million – Fragility 44
30. Ukraine – 41 million – Fragility 96

54. North Korea – 26 million – 20 to 50 warheads – Fragility 87

93. Israel – 10 million – 80-90 warheads – Fragility 44

Notably, these three categories (population, nuclear weapons possession, and political fragility) don’t necessarily correlate directly. For example, many of the top 30 countries in terms of population don’t possess nuclear weapons, and the possession of nuclear weapons isn’t solely a function of military expenditure or population.

---

---

COMMENTS

Of the five largest countries, four of them possess atomic bombs. Only the United States, with a Fragility of 45.3, is listed as stable, and Pakistan, with a fragility of 89.9, is at the top of High Warning and only 0.1 points away from a fragility of 90, Alert. The United States Fragility 45 is worrisome, considering that the current political situation is worsening. A friend of mine was in Iceland last week with a fragility of 15.7 and he said it was a beautiful, stress-free place. Russia, with 6,375 warheads, a fragility of 80 – High warning, and currently at war, has got to get your attention!

CONCLUSIONS

Humanity has lived since 1945 without any atomic bombs being used militarily, because it was provoking suicide in any nation that used them. The MAD policy of Mutually Assured Destruction prevented wars between the major states. However, the current situation, with the many problems discussed in these blogs, looks grim. There don’t seem to be any diplomatic conversations that would eliminate the worsening of risk from any of the 11 existential threats listed at the top of the recent posts.

DORIS DAY – Enjoy Yourself (It’s Later Than You Think) (1950)

AI measures the present existential threats. 11. Other Unknown Risks

AI measures the present existential threats to humanity and life on earth.

1. Nuclear Warfare, 2. Climate Change, 3. Biodiversity Loss, 4. Pandemics, 5. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), 6. Asteroid Impacts, 7. Supervolcanic Eruptions, 8. Cosmic Threats, 9. Misuse of Advanced Biotechnology, 10. Global Systemic Collapse, 11. Other Unknown Risks.

---

A challenge to Chat GP-4

11. Discuss how Other Unknown Risks will impact humanity and risk human extinction.

---

“Unknown risks” pertain to the domain of “unknown unknowns”—risks we haven’t yet identified or cannot predict due to the limits of our current knowledge and understanding. These are contrasts to “known unknowns,” which are risks we are aware of but cannot fully understand or predict. Discussing the impact of such unknown risks is inherently speculative, but we can make some general observations:

Potential Categories of Unknown Risks:

1. Emerging Technologies: Just as the advent of nuclear technology introduced new existential risks during the 20th century, future technologies may harbor risks we can’t yet fathom. This could be related to fields like quantum computing, synthetic biology, nanotechnology, or something entirely novel.
2. Cosmic Phenomena: Our understanding of the universe is still expanding. While we are aware of threats like asteroid impacts or gamma-ray bursts, there might be other cosmic phenomena we have not yet discovered or properly understood.
3. Deep Earth Processes: Much remains unknown about Earth’s deep processes. There could be geological or other processes deep within the Earth or in its oceans that might present risks.
4. Biological Events: The sudden appearance of a novel pathogen or a rapid evolutionary event might bring about challenges we cannot predict.
5. Complex Systemic Interactions: In our interconnected world, there may be hidden feedback loops or interactions that could trigger cascading failures across systems, be it ecosystems, economies, or technological networks.

Impacts of Unknown Risks on Humanity:

1. Surprise and Unpreparedness: By their very nature, unknown risks would catch humanity off guard, leading to potential delays in response and higher levels of initial impact.
2. Rapid Escalation: Given a lack of prior understanding or awareness, the effects of such risks could escalate rapidly, outpacing our ability to mitigate or adapt.
3. Prolonged Recovery: The aftermath of an unknown event could be marked by confusion and a struggle to comprehend and adapt to the new challenge, leading to prolonged recovery times.
4. Fundamental Shifts: The emergence of a new, previously unknown risk might force humanity to re-evaluate its understanding of the world, leading to potential shifts in science, culture, or philosophy.

Risk of Human Extinction from Unknown Risks:

1. Severity: If an unknown risk is severe enough, it could threaten the survival of humanity, especially if we are unprepared.
2. Cascading Effects: The aftermath of an unexpected event could lead to secondary crises or challenges, further exacerbating the situation.
3. Adaptive Challenge: Humanity’s ability to adapt to new threats is a strength, but if a threat is entirely novel and not understood, our adaptive capacities might be severely tested.

Mitigation and Preparedness for Unknown Risks:

1. Broad-Spectrum Preparedness: While specific preparations for unknown risks are inherently challenging, general resilience measures, such as decentralized food and water sources, redundant infrastructure, and resilient social systems, can be beneficial.
2. Promote Research: Encourage wide-ranging scientific research to expand our understanding of the world and uncover potential unknowns.
3. Global Collaboration: Foster global cooperation and communication to rapidly share and act upon new information or emerging threats.
4. Cultivate Adaptability: Encourage societal, technological, and individual adaptability to react quickly to unforeseen challenges.
5. Ethical Considerations: As we progress in various fields, especially technology, ensure that ethical considerations are at the forefront to minimize unintended harmful consequences.

In essence, while it’s challenging to anticipate unknown risks, building a resilient, adaptable, and cooperative global society can enhance our capacity to face and overcome unexpected challenges.

---

---

COMMENTS

The existential threats to humanity discussed are real, but because of our massive numbers, some of us are in locations so remote that our species will survive. If only one person in a million survived, that would leave eight thousand living, and that number has generated the population we now have, probably more than once. Also, people in remote locations tend to have a supply of reserves.

CONCLUSIONS

By definition, it is impossible to know how the infinity of the universe’s and humanity’s processes will manifest themselves. However, we can make preparations that would cover every plausible event, with the expectation that there would be enough overlap in what we have prepared for to cover the adverse effects of the unknowns we haven’t.

---

Antifragil, Robust, Redundant, Backup,

AI measures the present existential threats. 10. Global Systemic Collapse

AI measures the present existential threats to humanity and life on earth.

1. Nuclear Warfare, 2. Climate Change, 3. Biodiversity Loss, 4. Pandemics, 5. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), 6. Asteroid Impacts, 7. Supervolcanic Eruptions, 8. Cosmic Threats, 9. Misuse of Advanced Biotechnology, 10. Global Systemic Collapse, 11. Other Unknown Risks.

---

A challenge to Chat GP-4

10. Discuss how the Global Systemic Collapse will impact humanity and risk human extinction.

---

Global Systemic Collapse refers to the breakdown of modern global society’s fundamental systems and structures. It encompasses economic, political, social, and environmental dimensions and represents a situation where the foundational elements of civilization fail simultaneously or collapse in sequence. Such a scenario would have profound, far-reaching implications.

Impacts of Global Systemic Collapse on Humanity:

1. Economic Breakdown:
   • Global Recession/Depression: A severe global economic downturn would lead to massive unemployment, business failures, and extreme poverty.
   • Collapse of Financial Systems: The failure of banking and monetary systems could erode trust, cause panic, and make economic recovery exceptionally challenging.
2. Political Instability:
   • Governance Breakdown: Failed states or governance systems could lead to lawlessness and anarchy.
   • Geopolitical Conflicts: Competition for dwindling resources could lead to wars within and between nations.
3. Social Unrest:
   • Mass Migrations: Environmental degradation or political instability could force vast numbers of people to migrate, causing refugee crises.
   • Internal Conflicts: Economic hardships, inequality, and societal tensions could spark civil unrest and civil wars.
4. Infrastructure Failure:
   • Utility Breakdown: The collapse of essential utilities like water, electricity, and sanitation would lead to public health crises.
   • Communication Failure: The failure of communication networks would isolate communities and hinder coordinated responses.
5. Food and Water Scarcity:
   • Agricultural Failures: Disruptions in global trade and environmental stressors would lead to widespread crop failures.
   • Water Shortages: Declining water availability could lead to conflicts and make many regions uninhabitable.
6. Healthcare Collapse:
   • Pandemic Outbreaks: With a compromised healthcare system and reduced vaccination rates, infectious diseases could spread rapidly.
   • Reduced Medical Access: A lack of medical facilities, professionals, and medicines would increase mortality rates for treatable conditions.
7. Environmental Degradation:
   • Ecosystem Collapse: Overexploitation and neglect could lead to the failure of critical ecosystems, affecting biodiversity and human livelihoods.
   • Climate Change Acceleration: The public’s focus on immediate survival would divert attention from long-term environmental threats like climate change.

Risk of Human Extinction from Global Systemic Collapse:

1. Multiplier Effect: The intertwined nature of global systems means that the collapse of one could amplify the impact of others, leading to a cascading effect.
2. Reduced Adaptive Capacity: A global systemic collapse would reduce humanity’s ability to respond and adapt to new challenges or threats, making us vulnerable to secondary crises.
3. Long-term Stagnation: The aftermath of such a collapse could mean that humanity remains in a prolonged state of reduced technological capability, making recovery arduous.
4. Loss of Knowledge and Culture: A prolonged collapse could result in the loss of accumulated knowledge, skills, and cultural identities.

Mitigation and Preparedness:

1. Strengthen Global Cooperation: Encouraging collaborative international efforts can help preemptively address shared challenges.
2. Diversify Supply Chains: Reducing dependencies on singular or centralized sources can make global systems more resilient.
3. Promote Sustainable Practices: Transitioning to environmentally sustainable practices can mitigate the risk of ecological collapse.
4. Invest in Local Resilience: Strengthening local infrastructures and economies can ensure that communities can survive and function even if global systems falter.
5. Prioritize Education: Investing in education ensures that knowledge is widespread and not centralized, promoting adaptability in crises.

In summary, while a global systemic collapse is a multifaceted and complex scenario, its consequences would be profoundly dire for humanity. The interconnected nature of modern society can be a strength, but without adequate preparation and foresight, it can also be a vulnerability. Proactive global cooperation, sustainable development, and a focus on resilience are essential to mitigating such risks.

---

---

COMMENTS

The intertwined nature of global systems means that the collapse of one would amplify the impact of all of the eleven existential threats, leading to a vicious positive reinforcement cycle. That profound problem would bring total societal collapse down to local unstructured social groups. Some of these groups would have leftover weapons from advanced societies and would pillage other survivors food and supplies, without producing anything useful themselves. At some point, the remaining atomic weapons would be used, bringing existential risk to the total annihilation of humanity.

CONCLUSIONS

Global Systemic Collapse would bring the classic Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse to humanity–War, Famine, Disease, and Death. Unless survival silos, which I have been calling the Earth Ark Project, are built now, humanity will go extinct when any of the Global risks go too far, and there is a Global Systemic Collapse.