When moving up along a logarithmic chart from the bottom, we lose track of individuals, even counties, states, and countries until the whole world’s population is just a gently sloping line. At the bottom, the distance between one individual and a second individual is the same as between ten billion individuals and twenty billion. This type of chart conveys a better understanding of growth trends of living things where everything is stable, including the food supply. When unlimited food is available to a living system, it grows exponentially in a straight line on a logarithmic chart. The angle is the same when going from one to two, as from one billion to two billion. Four and a half million have died of Covid, and it doesn’t look like a horrible tragedy; it’s just a tiny change in a black curve on your screen, but it’s getting worse.
Covid pandemic – August 25, 2021 Logarithmic Chart
Because this is a logarithmic chart, even a small upturn means a lot.
The Covid delta variant isn’t nearly as bad here in Oregon as it is in Texas and Florida, but we are having a noticeable upturn in our curve. That is compounding our drought conditions, and our worse than usual summer fire season. About half the days this month have had enough smoke to be unpleasant, but the nice days are beautiful.
Needless to say the world situation has been even more difficult, so we are happy to be living here.
Lately, the world has been having far more life-threatening problems, such as Covid, heat domes, droughts, great fires, infrastructure failures, and vast numbers of Afghan people suffering a political transition. Each of these has had its unique impact on me that is serious, but that would be welcome respites for many other people. For example, my house heat pump failed during the scorching weather and hasn’t been fixed for six weeks, and the repair people are saying it will be several more weeks, and perhaps not until winter. One would typically expect this to be fixed within the day of calling the people who installed the system, but after nearly two months, it is still in limbo, even though we have made a down payment for the new equipment. The same thing is happening with our emergency backup power supply from a different company. Fortunately, the nights are cool enough, and some days the smoke from local forest fires is thin enough to let the air blow through our house overnight. It doesn’t get hot until late afternoon, so it isn’t dangerous. So, I feel okay, even if the problems are stupid! I can’t do anything about what’s happening in Afghanistan, so I hope my government is doing the right thing. The forest fires are a real threat even though we haven’t had one close by, but we have the same kinds of forest around us that are burning out of control both to the north and south of us. I have done everything possible to make our home fire-resistant, like clearing everything down to bare dirt around the house. The various garden water faucets are hooked to hoses, and if there is water pressure, I can wet down what little is exposed. Hopefully, the Covid risk is controlled by my getting the vaccine shots and only talking outdoors to my social gatherings of friends who say they have had their shots. I am voluntarily doing what the CDC suggests are the prudent things to be doing. I worry that this Covid disease will be with us for a long time, with probably new variants coming along because most people in the world haven’t had vaccinations. At the personal worst, I could die any second, but I have already lived eighty-six years doing what seemed interesting to me at the time, so I’m okay with that too.
Do we still have the legal right to wash our face? The right to wear a mask seems to have been taken away from some Americans. Now children are being compelled to go to school and sit in classrooms with kids whose parents refuse to wear masks. The Covid can spread from person to person, and kid to kid, before the first one even knows they are sick. I rant, but the situation appears chaotic to me.
So, if I’m a kid in school, what can I do to save myself from getting sick with Covid and possibly dying? I’m stuck for hours indoors for the next nine months with potential Covid carriers who aren’t wearing masks. Even if I wear a mask I’m at risk.
There is one simple thing that you can do beyond just washing your hands. Because you catch the Covid in your nose and not in your hands, the washing of hands isn’t the best defense against catching the disease. You will catch the Covid disease through your nose, eyes, and mouth, so those are the places where you should be washing.
I’ve been promoting washing your nose for a year, but that has practically been declared illegal, and I was threatened with losing my Facebook publication rights if I continued promoting that idea. The CDC says putting soap into your nose is dangerous and probably harmful, and I would agree with that simple statement, but I haven’t been proposing that at all. What I have been suggesting is washing your face, including your nostrils, mouth and closed eyes with those diluted soap concentrations usually applied to one self in daily self-cleaning.
I’ve been recommending one drop of Baby Shampoo per cup of water, (preferably pre-boiled to get the chlorine out) to wash your nose. But, that seems repellant to many people, so I will modify the statement, if not the intent, to put one drop of Baby Shampoo on your wet hands and wash your face with more added water. While washing, let a little of the suds get into your nostrils and mouth, and then spit it out.
Soap disables viruses on contact. Keep a source of Baby Shampoo readily available where kids wash their hands and face.
It is easy to survive Covid; avoid any exposure to the Covid-19 virus. That is still possible in the short run by an adult avoiding all people for a year or so. However, in the long run of a typical newborn with a life expectancy of eighty years, living in a community with other people, exposure is inevitable. With a child growing up and attending school, their exposure is unavoidable because some of the other children will be exposed via their parents, who move about in the turbulence of the public world. Rapid mixing of all humanity is taking place worldwide because of air travel, and much more mixing of the transmissible disease locally brought by those travelers. In one year, four billion air travelers have gone from one place to another, and that’s half of the eight billion people now alive.
Number of passengers carried in Billions from Research Gate
Because of the air travel, the mixing is so thorough that being exposed is inevitable worldwide no matter where you live. However, it may turn out that a mild background exposure will give some people’s bodies a chance to develop immunity with little or no symptoms ever arising over the coming years. If that happens, in twenty generations of genetic evolution of survivors, the Covid will become more like a common winter flu. At present the disease is new to everyone and over the next generation of twenty years the routine will be get a vaccination or get sick, or get very sick and die. The natural process will kill off the unfit and the more fit will survive and reproduce those with the more fit genes.
At the moment, four million have died of Covid, of the two-hundred million sickened by it. That means only one person of forty of the world population of eight billion has been sick with Covid, and many humans are still, like you and me, being exposed every day. It appears that with so many carriers of the Covid virus and so many potential victims available for it to infect, that the current pandemic is not nearing the end; it is just deep into the beginning.
The situation is not so grim for the people who are fully vaccinated, but it is still severe. The more people who have the disease, the more opportunity there is for mutations to arise. The delta variant is much more contagious and is wreaking havoc here in the US this week, and it is sure to worsen for several months because where it is thriving, many people have refused to get vaccinated. That has been their choice, but if the past is any future forecast, many of those unvaccinated people will be dead in three months. There is still time to get vaccinated, but it takes a few weeks for bodies to develop a high level of immunity.
The obvious thing to do right now is to put on a face mask and get vaccinated. The option is to die of suffocation.
If we just look at the top broad blue line, it appears that the Covid pandemic is flattening out and therefore coming to an end. But that is not meaningful, because the number of people contracting the disease is enormous. Those first few months on the chart are nearly vertical, but the numbers of people involved were relatively few. It is only when the lines near the top of the chart are absolutely horizontal that the Covid pandemic is over, and even a gentle slope as the United States has still represents a tremendous threat because there are many sources of contracting the disease and even worse, there are many possibilities of new deadly mutations arising. The large numbers of Delta variants offer the possibility of it mutating into an even more contagious form or a more deadly one.
Everyone wants the pandemic to end, but it won’t end until it runs out of opportunities to find new hosts. It is that simple. There are eight billion people, and only 187 million (2%) who have developed immunity via having had the disease, and only 3.4 billion (43%) with shots in their arms have immunity. Covid still has about 55% of the human population upon which to thrive.
Covid isn’t ever going to totally disappear. Even the 1918 virus may still be viable in dead bodies buried in the frozen soil in the Arctic. If you haven’t had the Covid disease or the shot, you will be at risk of dying from it for the rest of your life.
These Covid pandemic charts have been updated every five days
Covid pandemic logarithmic chart of World cases and deaths, and the largest seven countries cases and deaths.
It seems strange to say but this graph is proceeding in so consistent a pattern that there isn’t much to be said that’s new. The sad problem is that on a logarithmic chart the vast numbers of people suffering and dying at the top don’t appear as scary as the few dying at the bottom. It is shocking to see the cases of Covid rise from ten on January 1, 2020, to twelve thousand on January 30, 2020. It is not so shocking to see the numbers rise from seventeen million on August 1, 2020, to twenty-five million on August 31, 2020. That comparison is twelve thousand versus eight million. That’s over six hundred times as many cases, but without six hundred times more interest, perhaps even less interest because we have grown numb to the scale of this Covid pandemic catastrophe.
In my part of the world, Deschutes County, Oregon, USA, we have gone from a hand-full of cases in March, which wouldn’t pose much of a risk to a hundred thousand people, to 810 today. That means over a hundred times more risk now than in spring, but people don’t seem a hundred times more careful.
When the weather cools to 43 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the ideal temperature for airborne sneezes and coughs to transmit droplets containing the disease, things will get worse. That coupled with the fact that we will be spending more time indoors with other people nearby to us, compounds the risk of catching the Covid disease.
Our individual personal risk is much greater now than eight months ago because there are vast and unknown numbers of people now carrying the disease compared to then.
So, obey the official suggestions for protecting yourself and your loved ones, and consider my suggestion that when you wash your face, include your nostrils and eyelids with a mild soap like Baby Shampoo a couple of times per day.
Covid pandemic 2020 chart for the World and largest seven countries.
A living growing population of a species with an unlimited food supply will tend to grow logarithmically. The logarithmic chart above goes from a single individual at the bottom to ten billion at the top and shows curves, whereas an arithmetic chart would simply have a vertical line for these presentations covering these vast differences.
The countries each have two lines: a line for the number of identified infections with Covid, and a second line of the same color below it showing the number of deaths, with the number of deaths in black. Exact published numbers are shown for the world for the beginning of each month. The months are also color-coded and linked to the monthly numbers in the same color. All of the curves’ “exact” numbers can be measured by stretching a straight line across the tic markers along each side. There is a large amount of error in identifying the Covid cases and deaths, and of the many agencies in compiling the data, and of the assemblage of the various forms of data by the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). I am charting these problems and warning you of the difficulties by placing Error bars above and below the World chart lines for infections and deaths. These are not statistical lines but simply two times the displayed data, and a second line at one-half the data line. It does give the reader some idea of the difficulty of presenting this data accurately.
The World data line includes every reported case and death; the lines shown on this chart are only the largest seven countries. I am preparing some local charts for Europe, but even in that smaller region, there are so many lines that the chart becomes even more difficult to read than the one above.
The one point that is perfectly clear is that the Covid pandemic is still growing worldwide in a logarithmic way and individuals worldwide must be as careful as possible.
I’ve been making these charts every five days since February 23, 2020, and all of them have some improvements in display forms over the previous ones. The current logarithmic chart includes the suggestion of error bars for the data tracks made by R. Lee Darby. He and I believe the data I am using isn’t accurate, and I have acknowledged that the Veterans Administration, the place where I get my medical services, is biased because we veterans are instructed not to contact the VA unless we suspect that we have fulminant Covid-19. Thus, if we have a mild case, which most are, we won’t be counted as having had Covid. Other countries have been reported as grossly underestimating their cases also.
Putting the error bars at double the official number for overshooting and half the number for undershooting doesn’t cure the problem, but on these logarithmic charts, it does give some boundary to our thinking about accuracy. Even going to the upper or lower dashed line bounding the World data lines may not contain the problem, but it does show that even that amount of misreporting would still leave the curves visually suggestive of the extent of this pandemic. I have put the 1918-20 influenza pandemic error limit arrows at 20 to 100 million deaths with a generally accepted number to be near 50 million.
This Covid pandemic will probably keep growing at near the present slope until the disease begins running out of uninfected people. The current slope line crosses the total population line in October of 2021 and if people develop antibodies and don’t get reinfected that will be the absolute maximum of cases. Of course, intervening factors will impose themselves to lower the curve, but by then the Covid virus will be running out of fresh flesh to infect. The Covid may be with us for many more years like the seasonal cases of flu, which we are accustomed to suffering.
Covid pandemic logarithmic chart September 15, 2020
What we must do for the remainder of the Covid Pandemic is to follow sensible instructions, like wearing a mask, avoiding indoor crowds, and keeping our respiratory systems clean.
April 23, 2020 – Two specific nose cell types have been identified as likely initial infection points for COVID-19 coronavirus. Scientists discovered that goblet and ciliated cells in the nose have high levels of the entry proteins that the COVID-19 virus uses to get into our cells, which could help explain the high rate of transmission. The study with Human Cell Atlas Lung Biological Network found cells in the eye and some other organs also contain the viral-entry proteins.
This is welcome news to me because it supports my theory that washing the nose and sinuses with a mild soap such as Baby Shampoo will help in preventing Covid infections. In this link there are the scientific reasons that Soap is a potent killer of viruses. The link is from a reputable source, The World Economic Forum.
My combining those two articles into a workable Covid suppressor is that sniffing some diluted soap suds into the nose when washing one’s face might be enough to prevent catching the Covid disease.
I am moving my head side to side to make the solution flow around in my sinuses after getting a teaspoon full of solution into my nose. It is then blown out into the sink.
I have been promoting the flushing of the sinuses and nose with Baby Shampoo for several months by using a dilution of one drop of Baby Shampoo per 100 milliliters (one cup) of distilled water, or boiled water if distilled water isn’t available. The articles quoted above only mention the nose cells and handwashing. The researchers may not have probed into the sinuses but that may be because they didn’t choose to irritate people’s sinuses.
“Dr. Waradon Sungnak, the first author on the paper from Wellcome Sanger Institute, said: ‘We found that the receptor protein — ACE2 — and the TMPRSS2 protease that can activate SARS-CoV-2 entry are expressed in cells in different organs, including the cells on the inner lining of the nose. We then revealed that mucus-producing goblet cells and ciliated cells in the nose had the highest levels of both these COVID-19 virus proteins, of all cells in the airways. This makes these cells the most likely initial infection route for the virus.'”
The obvious conclusion of these reports is to rinse the sinuses daily with a non-irritating solution of soap and flush away the exposed Covid viruses.
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