Bend, Oregon, has things in the storm sewers. But you can probably find even better stuff in your local sewer if you look.
In the chart above there are curved lines copied from the previous month that follow closely that month’s curve, and then that curve is used to project the next month. As it turns out, if there is a substantial curve neither the straight-line method nor the curved line was very accurate in its prediction. With over sixteen million World Cases the straight-line was accurate, but fortunately the World Death line wasn’t so bad, but because this is a logarithmic line the actual number of deaths was huge.
The World projection was close as was the USA, but India and Brazil projections straight line from the 1st of the month were not predictive. These projections are influenced by many variable factors, but when there are large numbers of people involved there is a lot of inertia unless something very significant happens.
If there are large numbers of people involved, there must be a significant change in the behavior of those people of a given country to change the curve. The extreme example of change was by China in early February, where there was a total lockdown of major cities coupled with major testing and confinement of suspected Covid cases.
India doesn’t have a political system or economic structure that will tolerate a total lockdown with testing, and therefore a total flattening of the curve like China has had will be impossible. Two years from now the people of India who are still living will have been exposed to the Covid and will have developed antibodies to it and very similar diseases. But this will come at a terrific price of suffering. China, on the other hand, will probably have time to develop effective vaccinations and the suffering will be negligible. Also, China will be able to operate its economy at full speed and have a great leap forward selling things to the rest of the world, which will be struggling to have people working together.
By this line of reasoning, the USA will probably continue to follow a nearly straight line growth of the Covid for a couple of months. That will bring the country to the November Presidential election with a raging disease in recent memory and still very much in the voters’ minds and bodies. The result is going to be civil turbulence because of blaming and retributions.
The USA became the world’s foremost economic power because of the 1919-20 flu pandemic, and China is becoming so because of the 2019-20 Covid pandemic.
This is a method for controlling, preventing, and curing the Covid disease and ending the pandemic. Of course, this method must be tested using standard scientific methods before that claim can be officially validated. However, the method is so simple, safe, and cheap that it can be done today by anyone because there are no untested chemicals or vaccines being put into the body.
First, the hypothesis is that:
- Soap is a well-known killer of viruses when used to wash hands or commonly touched surfaces such as doorknobs.
- At some concentration in water, soap will kill the COVID-19 virus.
- The Covid virus’s most common entry point into the human body is via the exposed surfaces of the nose’s sinuses.
- The exposed surfaces of the sinuses can easily be washed with distilled water, and some people do this routinely without ill effect.
- At some discoverable concentration of soap in water, the Covid viruses will be made non-infective by washing the sinuses.
- If the concentration that kills Covid viruses is dilute enough to be tolerated by people washing their hands, faces, and sinuses it would save many lives.
- I have personally tested these concentrations on my own sinuses and found that 1 drop of Johnson’s Baby Shampoo mixed into 100 milliliters of distilled water is easily tolerated, and 2 drops give about ten seconds of mild stinging, 4 drops are noticeable, and 8 drops will form a thick suds but not uncomfortable.
- By testing a cohort with distilled water only, and other double-blinded sizable groups with various concentrations of shampoo added to distilled water, a maximum tolerable concentration will be found; and an effective concentration for destroying COVID-19 will be discovered.
- This method at the low doses I have used for two months is safe enough to be used today, and if the method is effective it should be published in all the media worldwide.
- Here is a video showing how to make and use this Covid killer:
If this procedure works, it will put an end to the COVID-19 pandemic and save many lives. If it is tested and doesn’t work, we will know in a month.
Perhaps a human being’s most precious natural gift at birth, which has been granted by our last hundred thousand years of evolution, and social evolution too, is our ability to predict future events with some certainty. There are some inborn genetic qualities, like the ability to learn a syntactical language easily, which permit us to think clearly about unseen, and even unseeable, things.
We acquired these language abilities, not through natural selection, but through our species’ abilities of artificial selection, our inborn ability to perceive these capabilities in potential mates and choose the most capable people for our mates. Because of choosing our mates for their language ability, we have acquired a huge amount of historical wisdom. We are probably unaware of these abilities and their derived wisdom because they are always present.
In English, those abilities are labeled common sense. And when common sense reaches a high level it is called wisdom. Coleridge wrote, “Common sense in an uncommon degree is what the world calls wisdom.” ― Literary Remains, Vol. 1. This wisdom is available to normal humans, and yet it is unusual that people think beyond their quotidian common sense.
People will abandon seeing common-sense reality instantly if they can feel good right now by blocking out unpleasant thoughts. They will abandon unpleasant thoughts which are then replaced by their belief in some higher power guiding them to their personal destiny. That power can be any fantastic thing, but the more omniscient, omnipresent, omnipotent, and anthropomorphic their postulated being is, the more agreeable the believer’s life becomes by servile docile believing and behaving.
It would appear that newspaper slogan “If it bleeds it leads,” which routinely brings the most heart-rending personal events to the front page, would contradict the principle of pleasure seeking now. But it brings pleasure by showing the reader all those unpleasant things that are happening to other people. This proves that the readers’ reality is the right one.
This wandering diatribe explains to me why showing my friends my Covid death chart meets with so much avoidance. It shows the danger around us and it doesn’t put enough positive belief that it isn’t happening to me between me and the threat. Also, my solution of preventing personal Covid infection by snorting baby shampoo creates a present feeling of disgust.
Now that I see reactions to present dislike more clearly, I can change them to be more pleasurable in the now-moment.
The current chart has removed a few of the smaller countries to aid clarity. The tiny grey near the bottom is worrisome for me because I live in Deschutes County. It has had a sharp rise in cases in the last two weeks. Because of the beautiful mountains and rivers, this is a tourist town with a lot of random human contact, and a retirement community with a large population of older people who are at risk.
Our Oregon state law now requires us to wear masks when inside public buildings but that isn’t going to kill any Covid viruses, just prevent them from spreading as quickly. Also, social distancing is required, but it isn’t going to kill any viruses either; it will just impede their spreading a little.
The chart has some new light blue lines which represent the potential error of the predictions that extend into the future. The straight line is a duplicate of the previous month from the 1st day of the month and ending on the last day. It is copied and the copy is moved to the first day of the present month, which then gives a projection. That projection is color-coded to the data line. The dark blue line at the top represents the total number of World cases of Covid. A second projection line was created by copying the curve of the preceding month and blending that curve into the previous curve starting at the 1st of the current month. When the data line is straight, as it is for the purple USA line the two lines will be identical, If the line is curved as it is for the green Brazil line the two lines will diverge.
These projections are obviously different, and the more different they are the less accuracy can be expected from their projection. The projection lines for the USA and China are remarkably straight for the previous two months and that suggests that those projections will be close to the future data. There is a problem, however, when countries obviously want to suppress the dreadful data. I am a US veteran and when I call in about health issues the recording tells me not to report flu-like symptoms unless they are severe. That will obviously lower the Covid count by an unknown amount. In countries with fewer medical institutions there will be fewer reports of Covid and other diseases, and there will be more guessing by the data collectors.
The 1918-20 flu pandemic has very wide estimates of how many people died. The graph above shows the size of that estimate as being between 20 and 100 million people died of the 1.9 billion world population. There is a smaller band between 40 and 60 million deaths. That is between 1% and 5% of the population, with an average of 2.5%. With modern medicine and vaccines, the death rate might be less, but most people don’t have access to modern medicine and no one has vaccines yet. If the world death rate continues as with the present curve (highly unlikely), it will take over a year to reach that number. Unfortunately, the number of deaths will probably grow exponentially for a while.
The Covid isn’t approaching the second wave of about the same size as our current one; it may be building to a tsunami.
Jonathan Swift wrote, “When a true genius appears in the world you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him.” I may not be a genius, and certainly not a true genius, but I do have an abundance of ideas that you won’t see elsewhere, or you won’t see them for perhaps a decade or two.
Among the slowest to reach wide acceptance (published in AAAS at SF confrence 1988) are my proofs that Conan Doyle, the author of the original Sherlock Holmes stories and many other novels, was the most famous murderer ever. Jack the Ripper‘s crimes are a hundred and twenty-two years old, and yet they are still famous.
That is the mark of a genius storyteller, and it is a story that has many more levels of interest than the simple description of the events that are commonly told. (Another slow to reach the public idea was a precursor to Google Streetviews which I did in 1999 in Virtually Berkeley)
My current quest is the same as that of every other reasoning person, “How can the Covid pandemic be brought under control?” To cope with this problem I have been creating a logarithmic graphic showing the world’s cases and death rates and how one may easily see it trajectory toward the top of the graph, which represents the total population of our Earth. That graph should encourage everyone to get busy thinking, instead of worrying.
My method of coping with Covid is simple, cheap, easily available to everyone, and the real benefit is that you can do it now. The best way probably requires a trip to the grocery store, or drug store, to purchase a bottle of baby shampoo, but in the meantime, you can use any standard hand soap. I recommend the baby shampoo because it doesn’t bother the nose when used as I direct.
Here is a video showing how to make and use this Covid killer:
If this procedure works, it will put an end to the COVID-19 pandemic and save many lives. If it is tested and doesn’t work, we will know in a month.
Mix 1 drop of baby shampoo into 100 milliliters of distilled water or boiled water. That’s about 1 drop per cup of water. Early in the morning pour a tablespoon of this solution into the palm of your hand, bring it to your face and sniff some of it into your nose and sinuses. Leave the water on your face and hands and rub it around. Also, make a snorting sound with your nose to vibrate the solution around in your sinuses. The dried water will spread a thin layer of Covid virus-killing water that is so thin you won’t notice it, but it will kill some Covid viruses. Nothing is going to kill all the viruses because they are now everywhere in the world, but you can create a thin layer of protection in your sinuses and on your hands that will weaken the Covid viruses. Even the vaccinations, which won’t be widely available for many months, will probably only prevent half the infections, but if we build up a multilayered system the disease can be brought under control. Avoid people especially when indoors, wear a mask whenever you are going to be near people, and if you are sick totally avoid other people for a few days.
Covid doesn’t live on doorknobs, or your hands, or your face. Covid first lives in the inner surfaces of your nose, sinuses, and eyelids, and you can kill it there.
One of the most unique qualities available to humans is our ability to predict the future behavior of physical things, of living things, and of people. Our ability is greatly enhanced by our abilities to speak in complex sentences to others. And with technology through writing and books, and now the internet to communicate back and forth with nearly all living people. We can communicate one way and hear through writing and through audio/visual recordings long-dead people. Thus, we can access vast amounts of wisdom from the hundred billion people who have lived. With this wisdom, we can improve our abilities to predict many aspects of the future. Added to those human abilities, we now have personal access to the “wisdom of the cybermind”. We now encounter this new wisdom with a Google search which predicts what our questions are going to be when they are only half-formed.
The theory of the future has some scholarly books. Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting by Nicholas Rescher. 1998. “We live in a world in which predictions are not only possible but also necessary for the continued existence of human life.”
Another futurist site is, Predicted outcome value theory at Wikipedia.
“1. Attraction increases as the predicted outcome value increases
2. Prediction of positive future outcomes leads to future interactions
3. Prediction of negative future outcomes ends future interactions
4. People focus and discuss topics in conversations that facilitate positive predicted outcomes”
Another grasp at the future is a company in San Francisco which has developed an AI system that can now write convincing passages of English. Give it a theme sentence and away it will go writing convincing stories that appeal to humans.
The argument in this short essay was from the conscious nonpredictiveness of physical reality until life forms developed genetic transmission of living-learning in their physical forms and built-in behavior forms on through human improvements in communication between brains, and now onto the development of cyber minds and cyber thoughts. Each of these developments increased the depth and breadth of future predictions, but it also sped up analysis of ways to relate to that future and to respond to it in a personally useful way.
Our personal foresight for the next year will be how to survive Covid, but the ten-year foresight will probably be how to survive Cyber.
Why does China with the largest population in the world have a much lower rate of deaths than the United States? China has 4,634 deaths out of a population of 1.439 billion people, and the USA has 141,118 deaths out of a population of 0.331 billion people. China has 2.3 times as many people, but the USA has thirty times as many deaths.
The USA has almost a hundred times as many deaths per population and it is daily getting worse, but China has almost eliminated the Covid disease. The USA government claims to be putting people back to work, but our economy is in crisis whereas China’s Covid is gone and their economy is thriving, and because of their recent gain in personal wealth they have a large population with money to spend and invest in further growth.
India was spared an early onset because they didn’t have as large a tourist flow, as say Italy, but now that the Covid is established there it will continue to explode. Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Bangladesh have huge populations and will probably have an onset of Covid soon.
Those countries with low tourist flows are the last ones to catch Covid, but eventually, they will get it, and when they do they will probably have steep logarithmic curves like India presently is displaying.
In a few years, Covid will have become a background disease like the common cold and may develop seasonal outbreaks. With extreme surveillance, like China can deploy and most countries can not, there will develop immunity for the survivors, but that may take several generations of natural selection with its disabilities and deaths for that to occur. It now appears that even people who had mild cases of Covid have been developing vital organ problems that may last a lifetime. This is the natural flow of evolution, but we are not comfortable with its harsher aspects.
Covid is not an existential threat for the human species, but it is a life-destroying disease for individuals even if you don’t die.
The thick blue line above the other lines is the total of world cases of the Covid pandemic (COVID-19). At the upper tip of this blue line is a dotted line (………) from the 1st of July through 31st. It is a straight line projection based on the previous month’s data. When there is a downward curve in the data line, as there was in April, the projected line will be too high. To correct for that error, the curve of the previous month was copied and added on to the previous month. Then it was tilted so the previous week blended smoothly into the projection.
The data that comes in the next month will probably lie between these two projected lines. Some countries have the projections of the straight-line and curved line drawn in but you can easily apply this method to the other data lines to get an approximate idea of what the other lines will do.
In addition, there are drawn in “Last month’s projection errors and curved line projection errors.” These represent a daily adjustment that could have been made throughout the month. This may be useful when trying to estimate the effect that a rapidly changing curve will have.
It has been reported that there are over a hundred labs now trying to create an effective Covid vaccine, and some of the attempted vaccines are already being tested on volunteers. Also, to hurry the development of a vaccine, these trial vaccines are already being produced in volume even though it isn’t really known if they will work. If they work that procedure will get the vaccines to the public a couple of months sooner, but if they fail the only loss will be the money used for producing the vaccine. It is a trade-off between people’s lives and money. Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, has been at the forefront of supplying money for this vaccine development to move forward as rapidly as possible. The governments of the world have been much slower to respond.
At best, it will be several months before most of us will have any access to a vaccine, and therefore we should be very careful to minimize our exposure to other people. In the meantime, I have been promoting washing your nose and sinuses with baby shampoo soap diluted to one drop per 100 milliliters of distilled or boiled water. I have been using this dilution for a month without any problem.
It may be older people who are currently dying of Covid, but it is the younger ones who are not dying but are having heart and other vital organ problems that will weaken them for the rest of their lives. An afternoon spent with friends may give you a lifelong disability. This disease will probably be brought under control in another year, but in the meantime, the best action is to avoid exposing yourself and others to this horrible disease.
The memory that we have survived earlier catastrophes gives us the current widespread hope that we have and will continue to survive the current ones. The most egregious current catastrophe is Covid (COVID-19) and it is progressing with the characteristic logarithmic expansion through a fertile living field of human food as viruses typically spread through any living species.
Pandemics are probably spreading through natural species all the time, and we only notice them when the species being affected is a domesticated one such as corn, cattle, or humans. The other natural background pandemics are probably at a fever pitch throughout the world at present because of humans’ transportation systems, such as ocean-going ships, transworld jet aircraft, automobiles, and Amazon shipments worldwide. Also, the shoes of world travelers hiking in one beautiful place and then a totally new place somewhere else in the world spread diseases that we never become aware of.
Our human ability to forget painful experiences also gives the ability to generate unwarranted hope that the experience didn’t really happen, or it really wasn’t so bad. Pain is in the present and being unpleasant we want to forget it, and we only bring up dangerous experiences that we survived.
Several days ago I had slept on my stomach, which I rarely do, and woke up with severe pain in my neck and right side. I struggled through the day trying to find positions where the pain was minimal, but every once in a while a pain as sudden and intense as hitting the funny bone engulfed my entire upper back. I checked for heart attack symptoms and the pain was the only one, and it was somewhat affected by my bodily position. The next day I went to an emergency doctor, and they were very friendly and helpful, but functionally only succeeding in recommending various pain remedies, and not a cure. After several web searches, I started doing some exercises for manipulating my spine and neck, which resulted in even more pain. However, several days later these began to resolve themselves and I think I might be getting better. What seemed to work best in my case was to pressing my fingers slowly but firmly left on my upper spine and then right from the opposite side, while arching my neck to the back as much as possible. I’m not cured yet, but the root cause of the problem seems to be resolving and my pain is resolving.
I mention my pain because it will probably be forgotten in the near future, say a month, and my more normal activities will become pleasant again. I haven’t mentioned it before, but the last several posts were being written while I was in constant and severe pain. I couldn’t write for more than a minute without taking a relaxing break.
Hope has its usefulness even for a Stoic such as myself, but the hope that Covid has almost gone away is a false hope and will do more harm than good.