
Covid pandemic chart showing logarithmic progress and straight line and curved line one month error projections.
The thick blue line above the other lines is the total of world cases of the Covid pandemic (COVID-19). At the upper tip of this blue line is a dotted line (………) from the 1st of July through 31st. It is a straight line projection based on the previous month’s data. When there is a downward curve in the data line, as there was in April, the projected line will be too high. To correct for that error, the curve of the previous month was copied and added on to the previous month. Then it was tilted so the previous week blended smoothly into the projection.
The data that comes in the next month will probably lie between these two projected lines. Some countries have the projections of the straight-line and curved line drawn in but you can easily apply this method to the other data lines to get an approximate idea of what the other lines will do.
In addition, there are drawn in “Last month’s projection errors and curved line projection errors.” These represent a daily adjustment that could have been made throughout the month. This may be useful when trying to estimate the effect that a rapidly changing curve will have.
It has been reported that there are over a hundred labs now trying to create an effective Covid vaccine, and some of the attempted vaccines are already being tested on volunteers. Also, to hurry the development of a vaccine, these trial vaccines are already being produced in volume even though it isn’t really known if they will work. If they work that procedure will get the vaccines to the public a couple of months sooner, but if they fail the only loss will be the money used for producing the vaccine. It is a trade-off between people’s lives and money. Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, has been at the forefront of supplying money for this vaccine development to move forward as rapidly as possible. The governments of the world have been much slower to respond.
At best, it will be several months before most of us will have any access to a vaccine, and therefore we should be very careful to minimize our exposure to other people. In the meantime, I have been promoting washing your nose and sinuses with baby shampoo soap diluted to one drop per 100 milliliters of distilled or boiled water. I have been using this dilution for a month without any problem.
It may be older people who are currently dying of Covid, but it is the younger ones who are not dying but are having heart and other vital organ problems that will weaken them for the rest of their lives. An afternoon spent with friends may give you a lifelong disability. This disease will probably be brought under control in another year, but in the meantime, the best action is to avoid exposing yourself and others to this horrible disease.