I accidentally typed terror charts into the title line instead of error charts, but soon realized that was a better name for what’s to come.
Here in Deschutes County, Oregon, where I live people have been behaving fairly well when it comes to wearing masks and social distancing. However, when you look at the grey line at the bottom of the chart you can easily see that our last month of cases has grown more steeply than any of the other lines which represent the leading countries, including the worst country for failing to suppress the Covid, the United States.
The people I talk to on my two daily walks are always at greater than the recommended social distance of six feet, and I do wash my sinuses with dilute baby shampoo after my walks. I hope and believe that my personal risk is low. The conversations almost always ask how we are coping with the pandemic. Everyone is concerned, but I haven’t seen anyone actually in a state of emotional panic, and generally, the conversation will complain about the few people who aren’t wearing masks in grocery stores.
The Oregon State Governor has made it a law that people must wear masks in grocery stores and other gathering places. If the customer refuses to wear a mask, they are asked to leave. There have been reports of a few cases of refusal to cooperate.
The problem is that with over 500 cases in a population of 100,000 there are enough sick people to contact everyone else through a sequence of a second person or through them a third-person contact. Because most contacts are from behind masks, and at a social distance, the transmission rates between these people will be modest, but the children, who are naturally more likely to be in contact with other children, are going to be the prime vectors. Thus, in the next year, we will all be exposed, at least a little.
The much greater problem is shown in the chart above with the top blue line representing the whole world of cases of the Covid pandemic. It is nearly a straight line for two and a half months. Because this is a very large database the changes will be relatively slow and smooth and the projection line for the month of August will probably be within the width of the blue line. If that is accurate, at the end of August we will have approximately twenty-seven million cases. If that is the case and three to five percent of people die of the disease, the total dead from Covid will be between eight hundred ten thousand and one million three hundred fifty thousand by mid-October. That is a disaster!
Applying that same set of approximations the USA will have about seven million cases by the 1st of September and six weeks later at 3 to 5% total death rate that will be very approximately 210,000 to 350,000 dead. Those numbers will affect everyone emotionally because they will either know someone who died or will know someone who knew someone who died.
That will make a terrifying election environment for the potential Presidents to inhabit and make it ugly and dangerous.