When the Ebola outbreak occurred in October of 2014 I began a series of charts that might be useful in tracking the disease and attempting to predict its growth, deaths, and demise. Fortunately, the methods for coping with that disease worked, and when those procedures had been fully implemented, the disease was ended in West Africa. Ebola’s growth rate for the first several months was logarithmic, as is seen in the straight line on the charts below of the number of cases and the deaths.
See the current Coronavirus Cases from Worldometers.info/coronavirus/
2020-02-23 = 78,823 cases. 2,464 Deaths, 23,301 Recovered
Much worse is the growth rate of the Coronavirus – COVID-19 (the popular name hasn’t stabilized yet). It seems to be much more contagious and spreads as easily as the common flu. It is particularly dangerous because it appears to be undetectable in a carrier for as long as two weeks after exposure. With the modern popularity of world travel, that permits the disease to spread widely and then become infectious. After it appears it presents itself as the common flu for the period of time when it is most contagious. But it gets more serious and the death rate has been about five percent so far. If a vaccine can’t be created quickly in massive quantities, this will develop into a world-class disaster. It usually takes several months to discover a vaccine that works, and several more months to manufacture large quantities of vaccine. With Coronavirus disease, we may not have that much time before it spreads world-wide.
The Mishtalk chart above shows Coronavirus going from 100 cases to 1,000 in 5 days, and it is projected to go from 1,000 to 10,000 in 6 days. Because this disease seems to have spread worldwide the only limiting factor will be the 8,000,000,000 people inhabiting the Earth.
That, of course, is the worst-case projection, and straight-line projections are almost always wrong, but it could approach that limiting factor. This would be the rate of growth per six-day periods – 1, 100, 10,000, 1,000,000, 100,000,000, 10,000,000,000. At that observed rate of growth so far, it would only take a month to infect everyone.
It is not much comfort to look at the charts below I made for a similar situation with the Ebola virus outbreak. It started in 2014 and was over in about a year. But when the US election comes this November, we will probably have a whole new outlook on what’s important.
Ebola cases April 2014 through October 1, 2014
Ebola case and death projections
Ebola cases in orange and deaths in red
How to prevent Ebola, the common cold and infectious disease.
Ebola cases and deaths compared to major historical diseases and wars. Posted October 4, 2014
Ebola compared to historical epidemics and wars
Ebola logarithmic chart from 1st victim to vaccine control. With a Plague, AIDS, World War 2, with a 1-year projection. October 10, 2014
Stop Ebola with physical separation methods list.
Ebola logarithmic chart projecting the response to an effective vaccine. Posted October 20, 2014
Projections of Ebola’s response to effective vaccines.
This logarithmic chart updates the deaths from the West Africa Ebola outbreak to December 31, 2014
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) logarithmic chart update – 31 December 2014
This logarithmic chart updates the cases and deaths from the West Africa Ebola outbreak to September 3, 2015, and compares them to major historical wars and epidemics.
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) logarithmic chart update – 03 September 2015
This logarithmic chart updates the cases and deaths from the West Africa Ebola outbreak to January 3, 2016, and compares them to major historical wars and epidemics. Click for a bigger image.
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) logarithmic chart update – 07 February 2016
The Boy Scouts are presently in deep trouble, but their motto is what we really should be paying attention to today: “BE PREPARED!”