These Probaway posts have been comparing what is now being called Covid pandemic to other great population disasters of history. My goal has been to ease anxiety by presenting how humanity has endured the extremes of difficulty in the past and still survived. We will survive!

Log chart of historical war deaths

A history of major war deaths shown on a logarithmic chart.

A simplified display of Coronavirsu - Covid-19

A simplified display of Coronavirus – Covid-19 – using colors to separate classes of information. Feb 24, 2020

A projection of the worst-case scenario of COVID-19. March 30, 2020


Note the apparent rollover of the World caseload of Covid, but the absolute numbers are growing rapidly. April 28, 2020

The COVID-19 facts are based on WHO data, via Worldometers. April 15, 2020

A comparison of today’s May 25, 2020, to earlier charts.

The top chart compares historic atrocities of wars and diseases on a logarithmic chart. That chart has major war and disease events brought down onto the second Probaway Covid chart dated Feb 24, 2020. The current death toll from Covid of 347,915 just barely gets onto the top chart and is equal in deaths to approximately the Roman wars with the Jews. That was a much smaller world population, and concentrated on a small proportion of the population and therefore that event was much worse locally.

The Second World War death rate roughly measured at 66 million of a world population of 2.3 billion equals 1 of 35 people. Our current toll of 347 thousand on a population of 7.8 billion is 1 of 22,478 people.

We survived WWII and it was 642 times worse per person than what we have endured so far from Covid.”