My search for events of a five-hundred-year significance for the year 2019 hasn’t yielded anything yet that fulfilled my wish. With only one day to go until the new year begins it appears that I will have to improvise.
My guiding principle is that the power of computer chips is continuing to expand near the rate of Moore’s Law. That would mean that their capacity would be sixty-four times greater in 2030 than in 2020. And we know how to manufacture these things at an ever-increasing rate which could equal their increased power and in 2030 would have 4000 times more potential computing power than at present. Beating grandmaster GO players would be trivial as beating grandmaster Tic Tac Toe players. It just keeps playing until the Grandmaster goes to sleep, and then it wins and keeps winning. Boring! And on top of that capacity is their instantaneous access to all the wisdom of humankind updated a predictable way into the future. All of this was discussed by Pamela McCorduck (YouTube) in her book, Machines who Think (1979) with Ed Feigenbaum. – 5:23 “The four founding fathers were extraordinary guys, they really were. Alan Newell, Herbert Simon, Marvin Minsky, John MacCarthy”. – 9:15 “The primatologist Frans de Waal said, ‘AI taught us the questions to ask.'”. – 14:00 “A lot of reaction to AI is that this is somehow wicked. This is somehow blasphemous. We shouldn’t be going there.” 15:55 “If we produce a machine that can think it will out-think us and therefore replace us.” Watch the YouTube video interview because Pamala has been at the center of these issues since the beginning.
What is apparent, at least to me, is that the time is coming in which more human workers will be replaced by AIs than new jobs will be created for people. That AI is doing so at such a rate that human worry over being replaced is justified. The hoped-for possibility that AI will create jobs for new highly educated workers is unlikely to be realized; instead it is more likely that the AIs will do those newly created jobs better than humans, and they will do them without the years of training needed.
“We” are now about to transition into the next form of an intelligent being.