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West Africa Ebola outbreak chart

This logarithmic chart updates the deaths from the West Africa Ebola outbreak to February 3, 2015

The logarithmic chart, based on WHO data, shows the trend of the Ebola disease in West Africa is rolling over. That diminishing of the disease is most easily seen in the red C and the black D placed on the end of the month positions. The situation is better than the graph shows, because this chart lumps the whole month of January into one rating, but there were only 99 new cases reported the week ending January 29. If that trend continues there will be fewer than 400 new cases in February. More good news is that the medical facilities are now in place, and more crews are now trained for tracking possible new cases, so it is possible that there may be a sudden drop in new cases. The people of the infected countries have been informed as to what to watch for, and what to do when they suspect an Ebola case, but they must continue to act properly, and report the cases.

The effort is now being shifted to tracking down every case of Ebola, and every human contact made by that sick person after their first symptoms appeared. The onset of this disease is rapid, and the victim is driven to bed quickly, therefore the transmission rate is low and relatively easy to track. The potential victims are contacted every day for twenty one days, and if infected they are isolated immediately before they can infect others.

With so many people working on the eradication of this disease, and relatively few new cases developing this outbreak may come to an end in two months. Unfortunately, the wild reservoir isn’t known. It is thought to be fruit bats, but killing all the West African bats is probably impossible and useless because other bats would soon fly in and replace the existing ones. Treating the bats with vaccine might prove to be the best and cheapest method for preventing the disease from reentering the human population. Also, the vaccines now in trial for human usage could more quickly be cleared for use with bats.

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