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This logarithmic chart uses projections from the past Ebola cases and Ebola deaths with a speculative projection of the potential effects of large amounts of effective vaccines. The data in the solid lines from December 2013 through October 2014 is based on reports from the World Health Organization (WHO). The red disks and black Xs are derived from the reports on cases and deaths of the month ending where they are placed. The small dotted lines are straight-line projections into the future from from the previous six months.
There are already some possibly effective vaccine candidates based on inserting DNA strings into the Ebola DNA using the CRISPR technique to control their location. These vaccines must be tested for safety and effectiveness, but there is no time to do this with the approved methods, because the disease is doubling so fast. Desperate measures are going to be used to hurry the introduction of these vaccines, so some of them probably will fail to provide immunity, while others may cause disease themselves. Only with experience will it become known what will happen, and what will work, but if nothing is done the projection made on October 1, 2014 isn’t impossible, and that would be a tragedy equivalent to World War 2 by next October 2015. Ten thousand people will probably be dead of Ebola by December, 2014, but without an effective vaccine that could go to twenty million by next October. There isn’t any threat to humanity as a whole, because our population is currently expanding at seventy million per year.
TIME magazine post-dated to October 27, 2014 p. 22 writes, “Health officials in Serra Leone, for example, have given up on finding bed space for Ebola patients; instead, they are issuing instructions on caring for the contagious patients at home.” Ebola patients are now being treated by totally untrained, poorly educated people, without any safety equipment. They are issued a bar of soap. This fact makes our politicians telling us that we shouldn’t be worried, “Ebola is under control,” sound like fools.
From The World Health Organization WHO – official source, “People remain infectious as long as their blood and body fluids, including semen and breast milk, contain the virus. Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness.” This implies that symptom free people can still spread the disease, and some men have multiple partners.
For the next several months – the only effective control of Ebola is the physical separation of the virus from people. When effective vaccines become available Ebola may drop back to zero, or it may reside permanently in some people without killing them, and they become super-spreaders.
TIME will tell, but it won’t tell for a year or more.
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