Links to a history of Probaway’s [EBOLA UPDATES] Since the Ebola outbreak I have been charting the cases and deaths on a logarithmic graph. To compare Ebola to Flu, Plague, AIDS and major wars the data was inserted and then the historic death tolls were compared proportionally to our current population. The chart was changed as more data was added and it became confusing to interpret. The present chart covers all the orders of magnitude from one person to ten billion, so it will be adequate for several more decades. The new chart’s dates go from the first case of Ebola through January 2016. There are vaccines already being rushed through research and pre-production and perhaps by July there will be enough to vaccinate everyone at risk. Until that time the only effective prevention of spreading the disease is physical separation of the disease from people. Once a person has the Ebola symptoms the mortality rate is about eighty percent without medical care, and about half that with care. Considering the lag time for effective treatment, and the current projections for the future ten months without a vaccine, the future of West Africa is grim.
A log 10 by 26 month graphic shows Ebola growth from the index patient to the time of possibly effective vaccine control. The data points are from standard sources based on the World Health Organization (WHO)and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). They point out that the data is not exact because many people refuse to report that they have relatives who are sick. Because of the nature of logarithmic charts even a failure of half of the victims being reported wouldn’t change the trend of the graph.
Probably the best that can be done for the people living in West Africa is to inform them of the ways to avoid catching Ebola. Basically that is to avoid sick people and their effluvia, and to wash themselves often. Also, I would promote not touching one’s eyes, nose, and mouth as much as possible.
The only effective control of Ebola is the physical separation of the virus from people.
Links to a history of Probaway’s [EBOLA UPDATES]