Links to a history of Probaway’s [EBOLA UPDATES] Our government’s response to Ebola is like the guy who jumped out of a plane without a parachute, “So far there’s no problem, and its been fun talking about it.” They say not to worry, there’s no problem, because so far there has only been one case of transmission in the US. Just before Christmas only one little girl in Meliandou, at 8.6224 -10.0642, was sick with Ebola, and now about 10,000 have been sickened, and half have died. That is a growth of 10,000 times in under one year, and for authorities to say the disease is under control is not optimistic, it’s absurd and counterproductive. The authorities are promoting panic by making ridiculous statements themselves. The public is becoming panicked by seeing how irresponsibly the people who must make the important decisions are behaving.
There are many villages about this size in the area, and most of them are located inside a ring of forest trees, with farming areas just outside the forests. They are generally about a mile apart, and connected by paths. There are about seventy homes visible in this photo with a typical size of 300 to 400 square feet area. There are no cars visible, and the seven miles to Gueckedou, a city of 200,000 is on a one lane path barely passable to cars. This Google Earth photo was taken on February 4, 2014; it is after six people of the one hundred living there had died. It was March 22, before the lab results had identified the disease as Ebola. The simulated aerial side view shows Meliandou to be situated on a picturesque hillside that would be away from unhealthy swampy areas. Note the size of the trees near the path for scale.
The graph below is logarithmic because to show the data on a simple linear graph the lines would be vertical, and it is useful to show how straight the growth has been.
[For my more recent and better presentation of the above date go to Probaway’s [EBOLA UPDATES]. ] Basing a one year projection on the previous ten months’ growth is not unreasonable and it only brings the death toll up to that of AIDS. Both of these diseases would be easily controlled by simple separation between sick people and others.
Take some time with the chart above, because there are lots of data related in comprehensible ways. The data can be verified with simple Google searches, but it is presented on a logarithmic chart so the relationships can be seen. The Red line representing Ebola cases begins in the lower left corner at 180 sick people on April 1st, and the black line just below it represents the deaths. It reaches 120 people by May 1st. The red line reaches 7,000 by October 1st, and the death line reaches 3,500 by then. The very first case at Meliandou could have been ignored as an isolated case, but by the time 180 closely associated people have the disease, it is called an outbreak, and graphing it makes sense. With a data base of half a year it is possible to make projections into the future if the factors forcing the outbreak haven’t changed. The population of West Africa is 340,000,000, so even with the horrific rate of growth it would take fourteen months to infect everyone. Of course that isn’t going to happen, but the potential is there if all factors remain the same, which they won’t.
At some point in time these lines will go horizontal and Ebola will be line in history like the ones at the top of the chart. The orange lines represent deaths from major wars, and the green ones major diseases. The great plague, the Bubonic Plague had killed very approximately 200 million people of very approximately 400 million people then living. The chart has dotted lines above those historical events that are scaled to our modern population to demonstrate the extent of those disasters. Our current population is 7.3 billion and theirs was about 0.4 billion so we have an 18 times multiplier.
We must do everything possible to make certain Ebola doesn’t get away and become a worldwide disease. The American medical authorities have been saying that it can’t happen here, and yet so far Ebola has been killing people at the rate seen in West Africa. The only known effective way for coping with Ebola is physical separation from the disease, and I support creating as much separation as possible.
The sooner we implement the policy of physical separation the sooner Ebola will go back to zero cases, like it was on December 26, 2013. Until then it can explode again, just like it is doing now.
Links to a history of Probaway’s [EBOLA UPDATES]