How can perfectly sane people make decisions, which have real world impacts, on totally unknowable subjects? Predicting the future is a questionable business at best, but to make projections about important things based on wholly unknowable, untestable, unprovable assumptions would drive Taleb to hilarious laughter. He would be forced to laugh because any other response would drive him to distraction and to tears, and he likes to enjoy life. No doubt he has seen a lot of similar behavior, having worked on the stock brokerage floor. I haven’t experienced much of this kind of thinking, and it bothers me. I like to live in the real world, or at least make a real attempt to do so. It appears that many people are perfectly happy to make assumptions about things that are impossible to know, and are so wild as to not make sense. These people seem not to be making even gross distinctions and are just wildly asserting speculation as fact. To declare a thing to be just so makes it just so, and there is no further need of consideration, of testing, of proof. A distinction between a milligram and a mega-gram makes no impact at all. How do they make assumptions with considerable confidence and assertion of their prowess, when the issue feels to me to be totally unknowable? The greater the show of belief the less the reality of the application leaves me feeling palpable despair and pain.
I want to approach problems in a way which would bring about robust results, but couldn’t make any progress with that, and Antifragile concepts seem to be unsalable to the apparently sane people.
We must develop a literature on sane people’s lack of contact with reality.