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The assertions “I believe,” “I think,” “I dreamed,” “I yelled,” “I destroyed the opposition” are not arguments for the truth of a position. What is a better procedure for discovering truth is similar to what Sherlock Holmes (JTR’s alter ego) suggests. Find any strange, unique and seemingly inexplicable facts about an event. Then list the possible ways that each of those facts could come into existence in the situation. Define tests for each of the possible explanations and then explore each of them with the goal of making that explanation impossible. Make the weaknesses of each explanation as based on the most reliable facts as possible. The more peculiar the the original fact associated with the problem the more likely this procedure is to yield good results.
Ordinary problems require ordinary searches and give ordinary results, but peculiar problems require peculiar searches and give unexpected results.