“I know of no way to predict the future except by observing the past.” Patrick Henry on Liberty. This statement acknowledges the obscurity of the future but doesn’t address the uniqueness of all situations.
We must be of wary of false reasoning, even when it sounds wonderful. “I have seen the future and it doesn’t work.” Robert Fulford. This is a cute statement but it is an obvious lie. He hasn’t seen the future because that’s impossible and therefore his analysis of it is a lie compounded on a lie.
History teaches us many things if we use it properly. How to use history isn’t always obvious, but sometimes it is obvious. Some future events are as inevitable as tomorrow’s sunrise, like tomorrow’s sunrise.
Obvious facts #1: 1. The Earth spins. 2. The Sun shines. 3. Humans wage wars. 4. Humans now have 30,000 atomic bombs. 5. Some people who are in control of atomic bombs will fight to the death. Obvious conclusion – Humanity should prepare for the results of an atomic war.
In human time scale the Earth will keep rotating and the sun will keep shining, but after an atomic-war, presently living people may see such a polluted sky as to block the sunrise. After a major atomic war, people won’t see the sunrise for several years and will have to wait for the fine dust to settle. It’s a question of timing, of when that will happen. Tomorrow’s sunrise isn’t so obvious anymore because is contingent on unpredictable human actions.
Obvious facts #2: 1. Unless there is a single overriding power, usually termed Leviathan, there will always be challenges by: 1. A person seeking unconstrained power to control.
Obvious facts #3: 1. Unconstrained power brings unconstrained abuse. 2. Unconstrained individual control destroys all but the individual. 3. Majority control destroys minorities. 4. Every individual is a member of many minorities.
Obvious facts #4: 1. Ultimate power must be divided among contending parties. 2. Each party should have approximately the same total influence. 3. All contending parties must also be responsible for the health of the whole. 4. Each individual needs to have voting responsibilities in at least three mutually conflicting spheres of influence. 5. These spheres of influence need to be limited and changed to a random new set as determined by a totally independent random method and with changing individual status, such as age, physical location, and other social contracts. The goal is to make every individual responsible primarily to the health of all humanity and to their various minority interests secondary.
Obvious facts #5: 1. The goal of the Leviathan or world law is to maintain humanity in balance with the capacity of the Earth to maintain it on a long term basis. 2. The primary job of every individual is to control the Leviathan of the world law. 3. Their secondary job is to produce as much value as they consume in their lifetime. 4.