When I look thousands and millions of years into the human future many of our present problems evaporate. The present worry about oil, coal and other one time use mineral consumptions become meaningless even in the thousand-year time frame. The assumption is of course that humanity survives and since dumb animals have survived without any preparations previous extinction events it is likely that humans will survive much worse problems. If we live as wild primitive hunters and the world isn’t totally degraded then a million years is possible. But, of course we don’t want to live as primitive survivalist we want to live as technologically super advanced creatures as near as possible to ecstatic perfection.
The question becomes, what must we do to achieve a world society of permanent social perfection? One thing which is absolutely obvious, is that humanity can not survive for a million years with huge numbers of Weapons Of Extermination (WOEs) available to large numbers of mutually hostile people. When critical things like food or power are in limited supply it will be impossible to avoid armed conflict.
Therefore, the WOEs must be totally eliminated from human availability, and to keep them eliminated for a really long period of time all people who seek them will be permanently isolated, and essentially terminated themselves. This is excessively harsh for our modern world and modern values, but I am talking about a really long period of time where even a small risk is unacceptable. Unfortunately, the risk at present isn’t small. No one can really offer an accurate estimate but my guess, but taking into account some 65 years of atomic weapons availability, and counting the number of near catastrophes, about six major known ones, like the Cuba Missile Crisis, the risk of Doomsday happening per year is about 3 percent. That makes it not too much of a worry on a daily or even a yearly basis but over a ten-year period it becomes more like 30 percent and that should really be scary for every young person. Even if the risk were only one percent, which is probably unduly optimistic a young person is likely to experience a major catastrophe. A one percent per year over a thousand-year period of civilization (only one tenth of civilization) makes repeated events of this type almost inevitable. So, in the long run humanity must accept some new rules of behavior or go back to post Apocalypse situation which is a very primitive life style without any perks of modern life.
Okay, I am not so sure about a one world government at the moment, but after a Doomsday war or two or three or more where more than half of all humans get killed then I suspect most people would be willing to consider some invasion of their personal privacy and space, in order to prevent it happening again. Since the ability to make human WOEs will come into common knowledge on the internet in the next few years, assuming it there isn’t already, then there will need to be some method of removing it and monitoring every persons access to even the possibility of creating these things. Ug. This may get worse that the air terminal searches, but perhaps not, because once these things are forgotten it will only require preventing certain very specific things from coming into existence. The physical materials, and the knowledge and the equipment for putting WOEs together.
The motivation for some people to exterminate humanity will always be with us and Doomsday might be triggered intentionally by a suicidal terrorist. This option must be totally eliminated if a high-tech humanity is to survive, even for a thousand years. It is impossible to please all the people all the time, therefore all people must be prevented from even the possibility of creating WOEs. And, that may be possible.
There must be an abundance of the necessities of life for everyone. If some essential is missing there will be deadly conflict, and therefore necessities must be readily available to everyone all the time. There must never be even a suspicion that there might be a shortage of some life-sustaining necessity. That condition can only be obtained if there are fewer people than there is food, shelter, legal security of person and property and all of the similar basics.
These basic things can only be had in the long run if every person is known and monitored. Actually, in modern societies we are already monitored quite a bit and the additional things I am concerned with are family size and access to WOEs. If the total number of people is well within the Earth’s ability to sustain us and we have no access to really terrible weapons there is a chance for humanity to survive for a very long time.
If we control family size and access to WOEs humanity might survive.