Humanity’s long-term survival requires laws which regulate a librating stability. Librating means having an inherent tendency to move back towards a potentially stable central position. This is an important concept to understand because our present world is out of balance and will soon swing back towards its stable point and beyond. Our current human population growth for the world is doubling every 40 years and that would cover every bit of land with human flesh in a few hundred more years. That is impossible and so something must happen before my postulated date of 5,000 years in the future. I choose that date for fixed point in time as being the same length of time from now back to the construction of the pyramids. If humanity has been highly organized for that length of time then it can be assumed it could last that much longer if future people lived in that life style.
There are two problems which must be solved or that humanity can’t survive that long. Unlimited human population explosions and H-bomb explosions or stated slightly differently, resource exhaustion and humanicidal super weapons. Humans have unlimited fecundity as all living creatures do but we also have super weapons with the ability to exterminate our species. The combination of those two abilities creates some special problems which require special solutions. (1) How can the human population be regulated to some specific number which is easily in balance with the Earth’s ability to supply their needs. (2) How can the knowledge of weapons of extermination be controlled and eliminated from a world where access to all information ever possessed by humans is instantly available.
In the future the “Laws Of Stability” must make it possible for the human population to librate about some stable point. Those living people would be the ones to choose what number of people they thought would be most in balance with the Earth’s resources at that time. I can only make a guess at what that number would be but it will probably be about 100 million total humans living at a given moment. That is the number alive at CE 1 when the Roman Empire, the Chinese Han Empire were thriving as agricultural societies. They were clearly within the Earth’s ability to sustain them because the various measures such as CO2 in the atmosphere, were librating. It wasn’t until about 1825 CE that the Earth began to show signs of not being able to cope with the excess of human pollutants and they began to build up in the air and oceans. At that time there were 1,000 million people. Then with the beginning of the industrial revolution, with lots of fossil fuel burning, the pollutants built up and soon exacerbated the various sustainability problems. In a librating system there would be natural forces which would push the number of humans to lower than 1,000 million. However, at present because human ingenuity has been so very successful the return to normal has been put for a while. We now have 6,800 million people inhabiting our planet. There will at some point be a restitution of our planet to a lower population number and the higher our population grows before that happens and the more the Earth’s resources are pushed from the balance point the further will be the drop. A simple calculation of dividing the present population of 6,800 million people by the clearly sustainable number of 100 million people gives us, at present population, 68 times too many people. But a libration of that population would possibly go 68 times below the middle-value sustainable-number which would be 1/68th of 100 million or 1,470,000 people. I have never heard of anyone making such a strange calculation but it makes a certain strange sense. On the other hand it would seem that anything which killed off all but 1.7 people per 6,800 would kill everyone. One thing this rather peculiar calculation seems to indicate is the severity of the readjustment problem. Our super successful technological civilization has brought us to a very imbalanced and dangerous situation.
The second factor which the future “Laws of stability” must solve is the prevention of the knowledge of how to make Weapons Of Extermination (WOEs). I am all for maximizing the flow of information on the Internet but clearly we must not have the ability to destroy all humanity within easy reach of everyone. Some people are so despairing about the world and themselves that they commit suicide. These people would clearly be at risk for destroying the whole world along with their personal selves if given the opportunity. WHO the World Health Organization estimates that over 1 million people succeed in committing suicide every year and perhaps there are 20 million attempts every year. It is impossible to know how many of these people would choose to take the world with them but even a small percentage when multiplied by a million per year becomes a very large number. If there were only 1% who would do such a thing if available that would have been 10 thousand attempts by the successful suicides. That is the low-end of the estimate but the high-end is really dangerous. If 10% of the 20 million attempted suicides would have been willing to destroy the whole world that would be 2 million attempts per year. Clearly the human population would not survive very long if this number of attempts were made to destroy it. I am trying to maximize human happiness and that requires a long-term survival of humanity.
In this post I chose 5,000 years of human stability for a fixed number for making estimates. That gives us some specific measure of the severity of the two most critical problems facing humanity, population explosion and knowledge of weapons of extermination. For civilization to survive as many years as it already has these two problems must be solved.
WOEs to the Earth with excess humanity.