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Happy New Year!

From Probaway – Dr. Doomsday

Things look good for the year 2009 even though the economy has crashed and there is a drought warning here in California. Both of those nasty things can be worked around because the effects from those problems are largely predictable. There is sufficient reserve in the American economy and in the vitality of the world’s reserves to prevent a real world-class tragedy. But, because of those two relatively local problems there will be shortages felt worldwide but in the grander scheme of things those problems must, can and will be adapted to.

There will without doubt be a great deal of verbal abuse thrown about this coming year, blaming all of the usual suspects, although because Obama won the presidency the abuse this year will be blaming the former administration. How can it be otherwise? Bush will probably not be vilified by history a hundred years from now as much as he certainly will be this next year but the big event of his administration, the World Trade Center’s destruction, will be permanently engraved into the world’s memory. The movies of it are so spectacular they cannot be forgotten, at least until something more horrific comes along, such as an atomic bomb incinerating some unfortunate locality. However, even with hundreds of millions of video cameras now in possession of the world’s public it will be difficult to make more compelling movies than airplanes blasting through buildings or the World Trade Center and those buildings collapsing. A mushroom shaped cloud just isn’t very photo worthy by comparison no matter how terrible the effects it represents might be. HiroshimaCloud.gif

Even the movie of the Hiroshima event isn’t nearly so distressing as the World Trade collapse even though it killed thirty times as many people.
Here is a good visual movie, The Atom Bomb by Andrew Alcutt but the audio track is too sweetly maudlin for such a horrific event and sends a message of whimpering compliant complaint rather than a strong and challenging one which would lead to positive creative efforts being made to prevent or at least mitigate the effects of a similar future disaster. There are quite a few atomic bomb movies at YouTube, just click here for the results of a search for Hiroshima and Atomic bomb tests. Then compare them to World Trade Center movies. It is difficult to imagine more distressing images no matter how big the bomb.
Although I suspect we have already entered Doomsday from a geological perspective, starting from Alamogordo, we haven’t had an atomic war just yet, which a thousand years in the future will probably be the defining event of our current century. When one tries to make an estimate of the likelihood of that event actually occurring it would seem to be in the three percent to ten percent range for the coming year. That doesn’t seem too bad for a one year projection but when you run those kind of odds out for thirty years or so it becomes really desperate and almost inevitable. I don’t think of myself as being particularly emotionally depressed on this subject, it just seems like facing the facts and trying to project likelihoods based on the facts into the foreseeable future. When that event does happen let us have succeeded in having the EarthArk survival packages in place. The events graphed out from a distant perspective will probably look about like this chart which I created several months ago for one of the early blogs on Survival.

Doomsday with a food shortfall precursor

Doomsday with a food shortfall precursor

This years blog certainly went off into a strange place but for all the gloom and doom there is a bit of hope in the form of the EarthArk so let me end the old year with the EarthArk project’s support staff symbol.

EarthArc support staff

I wish you a Happy, Healthy, Wise and Wealthy New Year.

And so ends and completes my New Year’s resolution of posting something to the Internet every day for the year of 2008.