Tags

, , ,

No one can predict the hour of Doomsday, but we can predict a very high probability for it to be within the coming century; and it has about a fifty percent probability of occurring within the next decade. Even the prophets of old didn’t predict the hour of Doomsday, but generally preferred to take a,Black Swan approach, and simply advised to be prepared at all times. On my Black Swan list #5 suggests, “We can and should prepare for the knowable consequences of an event rather than worry about the exact timing of the event with an unknowable probability.” With the level of risk projected above for an old person with less than ten year’s life expectancy it is less than 50% likely for them to be caught up in the Doomsday events, and therefore they have only modest needs for preparation. These old people would lose only a little life if the event happened, and they were killed; the certain expense, and stress of preparation would cost more than the benefits, and thus have little marginal value. However, for young people with seventy years life expectancy there is a great likelihood that they will become involved in Doomsday, and therefore these young people should take great care, and endure the considerable expense of in laying up preparations for the event. After the Doomsday event these currently young people could still have many years of more or less normal life, if they were sufficiently prepared.

The lives of these survivors would be filled with new experiences, which at the moment we would look forward to with great trepidation, even dread, and their post Doomsday lives would certainly be challenging, but also they would be interesting, and filled with hope of a better world. Furthermore, because of the nature of the Doomsday tragedy the general environment would start to get better within a few years, but it will be lacking most of the healthy genetic diversity of our natural world. People generally feel better when they can see things getting better on a daily basis, and where their efforts are being met with proportional rewards. After Doomsday there would be plenty of meaningful activity that needs to be done, and people like to be involved in important projects. Reconstituting the Earth is certainly going to be challenging, and meaningful. Experience has shown, that most people’s individual happiness returns to their base state after a month or so of adaptation to difficult situations, and having meaningful activity might make this the most magnificent time of a persons life.

At present it would be a worthwhile goal for a young person to make a great effort to be among the survivors because this afterlife in some ways might be like going to heaven. It might be a lot better than their current life after a couple of months, because much of the infrastructure of our high tech society would survive better than the people, and there would be abundance of some things for everyone. After a few years the background pollution will have dropped, and the Earth should be moving toward a new balancing point. But, it is impossible to know how the Doomsday events will play out, and it is impossible to estimate the pollution, and what has survived to refill the planet. Only the survivors will know that, and built with what they have.

Part of the overall plan of this Lifehaven strategy is to instill in the people of the world the need for a self controlled population plan. With a top predator such as humans self induced population controls are a necessity. The need for that is discussed elsewhere, but unless there is self control there will simply be another boom, and bust cycle. Black Swan list #10 “History is dominated by unexpected events, and we have trouble admitting that obvious fact, and preparing for unusual events, but this event is now becoming critical. “Prepare! The time is ripe for Doomsday.”