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Sun Tzu general

A general from the terracotta army.

Sun Tzu wrote a book 2,500 years ago which is to this day the best there is when trying to analyze human conflicts. His observations may be used as a point of departure, and a guide. It may be adapted to our solution to the Doomsday Event catastrophe, and the Lifehaven Strategy preparations for that event.

“In the general resides the military security of the people. If he is complete in every way, the people will be safe, but if he is defective the people are in danger. This can be paraphrased and adapted as: In the Lifehaven resides the security of the human species. If the Lifehaven is complete in every way the human species will survive, and will be provided with the essentials for reforming an inhabitable earth, but if it is defective all humanity is in peril of extinction.

“By commanding his general to advance or retreat, being unaware that the army is not able to obey his commands. This hobbles his own general. Sometimes there is a massive intelligence gathering operation trying to find out when the other party is about to launch a preemptive attack. An example of this was the USSR’s operation RYAN which was an attempt to determine the timing of exactly when the US was going to attack them. But even these massive efforts with a single goal didn’t succeed in gathering accurate information about predicting a single moment of decision by a single country. Think, how much more difficult that problem is now because there are about ten different players in that horrible gambles game. Each of these players has different motivations about what they want and probably curious ill informed beliefs about what their enemies want. That coupled with thousands of years of xenophobic ill will between some of the players, and you have a situation which is inevitably going to deteriorate into the use of A-bombs. Timing is critical, but it is impossible to predict.

“To anticipate a winning battle only when it becomes apparent to the common man isn’t excellence. To move into a Lifehaven after it becomes apparent to the common man isn’t going to work, because it is going to be far too late — Doomsday will already have begun. When the common man sees the bombs exploding he will be moved to action, but then it will be panicky action, and in this case totally ineffective. The time for reasonable action, on this Doomsday problem, isn’t after the fact of the first A-bomb exploding or by trying to anticipate exactly when that event will occur, but rather by being prepared in advance. One makes these preparations based on the accumulation of stressors which will precipitate the event occurring, and they way they will develop.

“The consummate general puts his army into a position which makes his defeat unacceptable to every man of his own army, The Lifehaven Strategy acknowledges that the world can not continue on its current path permanently — another 100 years is inconceivable — and in fact could have collapsed at any time in the previous fifty years. We have survived because of good luck. There have been several times where the decision to launch an attack came within moments of occurring. The Cuban Missile Crisis, Able Archer 83, and the Norwegian rocket incident being examples but here is a list of 20 others. Good luck doesn’t occur every time there is a decision to be made.

“An army may travel great distances with little difficulty if it moves through places where there are no enemies. At present there is nothing to prevent the creation of several Lifehavens because there is nobody trying to prevent there construction. They are intended to be absolutely non-military, and to have people from every part of the human population in residence. Thus, they wouldn’t be attacked by the waring parties. They would have to have the ability to protect themselves locally from pirates etc.. They would be remotely located, and very difficult to get to on short notice. They are intended not to save any individual or group of people, but to save humanity as a whole, and as many others species as possible.

“Be prepared! Never rely on the chance of the enemy’s not coming, but on the fact of our ability to hold him. Never rely on the chance that he may not attack, but on the fact that we have made ourselves undefeatable. This is the essence of the Lifehaven Strategy to be prepared for an all out nuclear war by all major powers possessing H-bombs. That assumes some 30,000 weapons exploded some of them upon nuclear power plants. The devastation of such a war will collapse all suggestion of civilization into radioactive dust, and possibly eliminate all multicellular life on the surface, and in the oceans. That is the extreme event, but perhaps not impossible outcome, and therefore it should be considered when making the Lifehaven structures.

The time is ripe for Doomsday.